What's next for the tropical Atlantic following Josephine, Kyle?
By
Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Aug 16, 2020 3:23 PM EST
We’re just two months into the Atlantic hurricane season, and it’s already been an active one. AccuWeather expects that trend to continue.
A flurry of tropical activity swarmed the Atlantic Ocean Basin over the past week, but as the peak of hurricane season approaches, there are concerns for not only more tropical systems, but potential threats to land, including the United States before the end of August.
More trouble is on the not too distant horizon with two more potential tropical systems on deck for the middle to latter part of this week.
"Several tropical waves will be moving across the Atlantic and the Caribbean throughout the week that we are monitoring," AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
Two of the areas of concern have the best chance... the system moving into the Caribbean has about 50-50 shot, whole the system over the central Atlantic has about a 50 to 70% chance of developing this week.
Both Tropical Storm Kyle and Tropical Storm Josephine were named in the Atlantic Ocean in less than 48 hours of each other late last week. But just as quickly as both storms ramped up, these tropical storms fell apart.
Kyle formed off the coast of the Carolinas, on Friday and brought heavy rainfall to parts of the mid-Atlantic, but has since become non-tropical.
Josephine traversed the open waters of the Atlantic, passing just northeast of the Leeward Islands on Saturday, and was then downgraded to a tropical depression. On Sunday evening, the center of circulation of Josephine had continued to dissipate further, losing its tropical depression status.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
"Wind shear that was significant and a deterrent over the Caribbean during the past couple of weeks will be weakening this week," according to AccuWeather's top hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski.
"This could allow the system immediately approaching the Windward and southern Leeward Islands to become a tropical depression sometime Tuesday or Wednesday as it moves west at about 20 mph," Kottlowski added.
These islands can expect an uptick in shower and heavy thunderstorm activity through Tuesday night, regardless of early development or not.
This image, captured on Monday, August 17, 2020, shows a batch of thunderstorms associated with a tropical disturbance moving westward toward the Windward Islands. South America is visible on the lower left and lower center of the image. (NOAA-GOES-East)
After encountering the Lesser Antilles, the system is forecast to move westward over the middle of the Caribbean during the middle to latter part of this week.
The path the system takes in the western Caribbean is uncertain at this point and it is dependent on the overall strength of the system and how much the jet stream dips over the western Gulf of Mexico later this week.
"A weak or poorly organized tropical storm is more likely to take more westward path toward central America," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
"However, a jet stream dip over the Gulf of Mexico is also likely to tug the system northward, but how quickly that happens may determine of the system hits part of Central America first and weakens prior to turning northward verses the system staying stronger and moving over open water between Cuba and Mexico," Sosnowski said.
In this latter scenario, a well-organized tropical system that has undergone minimal land interaction may be on the loose and a threat in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
There will still be some wind shear over the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico later this week into this weekend, so it is possible the system stays poorly organized of perhaps struggles as a minimal tropical system.
Farther East, a tropical disturbance that moved off the coast of Africa this past weekend will pass the Cabo Verde Islands Monday and move into a favorable area for tropical development farther to the west over the balance of the week.
This image centered on the tropical Atlantic was taken on Monday, August 17, 2020 and shows a disorganized area of thunderstorms that just moved off the coast of Africa (right). (NOAA-GOES-East)
Should this second tropical wave be able to wrestle away from the dry, Saharan dust of Africa, it may have better chance of developing this week.
"Regardless of development, this second system is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles sometime Friday or Friday night with strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall," Kottlowski stated.
Closer to land, tropical moisture, although not from a defined tropical system, is expected to bring downpours late this week.
The surge of moisture will impact some areas that has been hit by repeated tropical systems so far this season, such as former Tropical Storm Arthur, Bertha, Fay and Isaias. As such, there will be a greater risk for flooding in parts of the Southeast.
Meanwhile, AccuWeather meteorologists will be turning their attention to the active East Pacifc, and other areas of the Atlantic Ocean worth monitoring.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Hurricane
What's next for the tropical Atlantic following Josephine, Kyle?
By Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Aug 16, 2020 3:23 PM EST
We’re just two months into the Atlantic hurricane season, and it’s already been an active one. AccuWeather expects that trend to continue.
A flurry of tropical activity swarmed the Atlantic Ocean Basin over the past week, but as the peak of hurricane season approaches, there are concerns for not only more tropical systems, but potential threats to land, including the United States before the end of August.
More trouble is on the not too distant horizon with two more potential tropical systems on deck for the middle to latter part of this week.
"Several tropical waves will be moving across the Atlantic and the Caribbean throughout the week that we are monitoring," AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
Two of the areas of concern have the best chance... the system moving into the Caribbean has about 50-50 shot, whole the system over the central Atlantic has about a 50 to 70% chance of developing this week.
Both Tropical Storm Kyle and Tropical Storm Josephine were named in the Atlantic Ocean in less than 48 hours of each other late last week. But just as quickly as both storms ramped up, these tropical storms fell apart.
Kyle formed off the coast of the Carolinas, on Friday and brought heavy rainfall to parts of the mid-Atlantic, but has since become non-tropical.
Josephine traversed the open waters of the Atlantic, passing just northeast of the Leeward Islands on Saturday, and was then downgraded to a tropical depression. On Sunday evening, the center of circulation of Josephine had continued to dissipate further, losing its tropical depression status.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
"Wind shear that was significant and a deterrent over the Caribbean during the past couple of weeks will be weakening this week," according to AccuWeather's top hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski.
"This could allow the system immediately approaching the Windward and southern Leeward Islands to become a tropical depression sometime Tuesday or Wednesday as it moves west at about 20 mph," Kottlowski added.
These islands can expect an uptick in shower and heavy thunderstorm activity through Tuesday night, regardless of early development or not.
This image, captured on Monday, August 17, 2020, shows a batch of thunderstorms associated with a tropical disturbance moving westward toward the Windward Islands. South America is visible on the lower left and lower center of the image. (NOAA-GOES-East)
After encountering the Lesser Antilles, the system is forecast to move westward over the middle of the Caribbean during the middle to latter part of this week.
The path the system takes in the western Caribbean is uncertain at this point and it is dependent on the overall strength of the system and how much the jet stream dips over the western Gulf of Mexico later this week.
"A weak or poorly organized tropical storm is more likely to take more westward path toward central America," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
"However, a jet stream dip over the Gulf of Mexico is also likely to tug the system northward, but how quickly that happens may determine of the system hits part of Central America first and weakens prior to turning northward verses the system staying stronger and moving over open water between Cuba and Mexico," Sosnowski said.
In this latter scenario, a well-organized tropical system that has undergone minimal land interaction may be on the loose and a threat in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
There will still be some wind shear over the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico later this week into this weekend, so it is possible the system stays poorly organized of perhaps struggles as a minimal tropical system.
Farther East, a tropical disturbance that moved off the coast of Africa this past weekend will pass the Cabo Verde Islands Monday and move into a favorable area for tropical development farther to the west over the balance of the week.
This image centered on the tropical Atlantic was taken on Monday, August 17, 2020 and shows a disorganized area of thunderstorms that just moved off the coast of Africa (right). (NOAA-GOES-East)
Should this second tropical wave be able to wrestle away from the dry, Saharan dust of Africa, it may have better chance of developing this week.
"Regardless of development, this second system is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles sometime Friday or Friday night with strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall," Kottlowski stated.
Closer to land, tropical moisture, although not from a defined tropical system, is expected to bring downpours late this week.
The surge of moisture will impact some areas that has been hit by repeated tropical systems so far this season, such as former Tropical Storm Arthur, Bertha, Fay and Isaias. As such, there will be a greater risk for flooding in parts of the Southeast.
Meanwhile, AccuWeather meteorologists will be turning their attention to the active East Pacifc, and other areas of the Atlantic Ocean worth monitoring.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo