What's next after Imelda? Two areas being monitored in tropics, including one near Florida
With two months to go in the Atlantic hurricane season, there are two areas being monitored for potential tropical development, including one that can bring impacts to the U.S.
Tampa sees record dry September as Miami hits 162% of average rainfall. AccuWeather’s Anna Azallion reports coastal flooding and king tides threaten Florida’s east coast this weekend.
Following twin strikes on Bermuda, in the wake of Humberto and what was once Imelda, AccuWeather hurricane experts are watching two areas for possible tropical development into the second week of October, including one with a high risk for development.
The potential for tropical development comes as the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season enters its homestretch, with only about a quarter of the official season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, left. The U.S. has still not experienced a hurricane landfall this season, marking the first time in 10 years that hadn't happened through the end of September.
Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva and his team will be monitoring an area in the basin's main development region between Africa and the Caribbean islands, as well as another of more immediate interest, near Florida.
As what was once Imelda's waves crash ashore, all eyes turn to Florida
Late Wednesday, Imelda passed over Bermuda, delivering heavy rain, monster waves and 100-mph winds. Even though the storm has lost wind intensity and quickly moved away, its impacts will still be felt along the U.S. Atlantic coast through the remainder of the weekend.
"Imelda will continue to produce dangerous rip currents and rough surf at beaches along the East Coast [through] the weekend as it moves out into the open Atlantic," said DaSilva.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski reported monster waves while at the Jersey Shore earlier this week, which can cause beach erosion. With many beaches now unguarded for the fall, beachgoers should stay out of the water until waves subside.
This photo, taken by AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski in Cape May, New Jersey, on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025, shows the monster waves that have been crashing along the U.S. East Coast from tropical activity well offshore in the Atlantic.
Outside of former Imelda's waves, a large area of showers and thunderstorms centered over Florida lasting through at least the remainder of the weekend will be the next chance of tropical development.
"There is a low risk of tropical development in the Gulf and Atlantic off the Southeast coast and the Bahamas," said DaSilva. "Much of Florida and parts of the Southeast U.S. could be soaked by downpours from a surge of tropical moisture over the weekend, regardless of tropical development."
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South Florida, which will continue to experience some heavy rain at times over the next few days, has been no stranger to wet weather over the last several weeks. In Miami, rainfall has been 160 percent of the historical average (17.83 inches observed vs. 11.17 inches historical average) during the period from Sept. 1 to Oct. 3.
The rain is more needed across northern Florida and the rest of the Southeast, where most land was abnormally dry or in drought conditions, according to Thursday morning's U.S. Drought Monitor report.
What is not needed are any coastal impacts and strong winds from a potential tropical storm. While it is more likely there is just heavy rain to contend with, if an area of low pressure can form in the warm waters off the coasts of the Bahamas, Florida or elsewhere in the Southeast, a tropical rainstorm or storm can form.
Regardless, tropical downpours can lead to localized flooding, especially along Florida's east coast and in central and northern portions of the peninsula. These showers and storms can also extend north to the coast of the Carolinas and west along the northern Gulf coast, impacting late-season vacations and tourism in the region.
A round of king tides is also expected to occur early this week along the Southeast coast from Florida to North Carolina, which will only be exacerbated by the rain and onshore flow.
Another area of interest in the central Atlantic
Perhaps at a greater risk of development will be a tropical wave which is expected to traverse the open waters of the central Atlantic between the western coast of Africa and the Leeward Islands this week.
On Saturday afternoon, AccuWeather hurricane experts upgraded the development outlook for the tropical wave from medium to high, with tropical cyclone formation now likely from Oct. 6-8.
Showers and thunderstorms offshore south of the Cabo Verde Islands, seen here on AccuWeather RealVue™ Enhanced Satellite on Saturday evening, October 4, 2025, is likely to become a tropical rainstorm, depression or storm within a few days, predict AccuWeather hurricane experts.
The area of showers and thunderstorms which can eventually develop into a tropical storm emerged over the warm ocean waters of the eastern Atlantic on Friday, local time, and was continuing to slowly organize.
"A new tropical wave [has emerged] off the western coast of Africa," pointed out DaSilva. "There is some disruptive wind shear in this part of the Atlantic, but the tropical wave may pass south of the shear in an area that could support development."
If the tropical wave can survive the hostile conditions of the central Atlantic, it could begin to slowly organize a few hundred miles to the east of the Caribbean islands early this week before becoming a named storm on approach to the islands later in the week.
The next name on the Atlantic list is Jerry.
Following that, the strength and movement of any potential storm has several scenarios. Climatologically, storms would follow one of two paths: to the west across the Caribbean Sea toward Central America or the southern Gulf or north into the western Atlantic.
The more northerly track would take the storm along a similar path that Imelda took last week. The waters in the western Atlantic in the wake of Imelda have been churned up and turned cooler, and with higher wind shear in the area, this storm would likely not have the same potential to strengthen as if it took a more southern track.
Regardless of either scenario, it is a reminder that even though the calendar will be getting closer to the end of hurricane season, residents and visitors alike from the Caribbean north to the U.S. should remain on guard.
AccuWeather hurricane experts are also tracking what is now Tropical Storm Priscilla several hundred miles off the coast of southern Mexico in the eastern Pacific. While this storm is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by early this week, current indications are that it will take a track mostly offshore of the country's western coast, first bringing indirect impacts such as rough surf to the Pacific coast of Mexico, and perhaps eventually rain to the Southwest U.S. beginning late this week.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Jacob Hinson also contributed to this story.
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