Go Back
Gushing rain, flooding to continue as atmospheric river slowly shifts in Northwest Chevron right
Powerful weekend storm to bring rain, possible snow to millions in East. Click for details. Chevron right

Ashburn, VA

38°F
Location Chevron down
Location News Videos
Use Current Location
Recent

Ashburn

Virginia

38°
No results found.
Try searching for a city, zip code or point of interest.
settings Let's Chat
Ashburn, VA Weather
Today WinterCast Local {stormName} Tracker Hourly Daily Radar MinuteCast Monthly Air Quality Health & Activities

Around the Globe

Hurricane Tracker

Severe Weather

Radar & Maps

News

News & Features

Astronomy

Business

Climate

Health

Recreation

Sports

Travel

Video

Winter Center

Top Stories AccuWeather Early AccuWeather Prime Astronomy Climate Travel Health Recreation Business Sports

News / Hurricane

Warm Caribbean waters could allow preseason tropical threat to brew

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published May 13, 2022 12:11 PM EST | Updated May 16, 2022 1:50 AM EST

Copied

The first tropical system of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season could take shape later this month in a traditional spring breeding ground for tropical systems, AccuWeather forecasters say.

Any formation of a potential tropical system is still about a week away, but AccuWeather meteorologists were homing in on a traditional spring trouble spot in the Caribbean located near the coasts of Central America, Cuba and southeastern Mexico as the area where something could spring to life.

There has been some indication since the start of last week that a disturbance could form in the waters of the western Caribbean and wander northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico during the period from May 20-25. While that is rather far out on the forecast horizon, this zone holds some of the warmest water in the entire Atlantic basin with temperatures in the low to mid-80s F.

Water temperatures in this region are running up to a few degrees above average. The minimum threshold for tropical development is about 77 degrees.

However, it takes more than warm water to brew a tropical depression or storm. Sometimes, a disturbance (also known as a weak low-pressure area) can be enough of a trigger, but there are other ways tropical systems can take shape.

"A potential trigger can be a weak southward dip in the jet stream, and it appears that setup could develop late this week over the region," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

While proximity to the jet stream can bring an increase in disruptive wind shear, it can help draw moisture into the region, which tropical systems need to form and survive.

AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said the latest forecasts indicate that "the middle and upper part of the atmosphere look more favorable for development" than they initially did, but he cautioned that forecasters are also recognizing signs that conditions lower in the atmosphere could be more prohibitive for a storm to develop.

There is also the possibility that a feature known as the Central American Gyre may form. The gyre is fairly common during the summer and autumn seasons in the region.

This feature is a massive zone of weak low pressure that spins slowly over hundreds of thousands of square miles. While the gyre itself does not evolve into a tropical system, lower pressure within the feature, when combined with a disturbance, can be enough to spur tropical development.

"The Central American Gyre does not happen as often in the spring versus the summer or autumn because the easterly breezes are not yet well established in the tropics," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said. "In rare cases, it can set up during April, May and June if the easterly flow sets up earlier than average."

There are many potential paths for any system that forms at this early stage, forecasters say. The possibilities range from a quick landfall over Central America or Cuba to perhaps a journey into the Gulf of Mexico, where shores from eastern Mexico to the Florida Peninsula could be at risk during the last week of May.

The longer the system spends over the warm Caribbean waters would increase its chances of gaining strength.

Despite the reasons given for potential development, AccuWeather meteorologists caution that there is no guarantee a tropical system will form, let alone reach tropical storm or hurricane strength. The zone will continue to be watched closely over the coming week.

If the named storm does take shape, it will be called Alex, according to the predetermined list of storm names for the 2022 season.

GET THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP

 Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+

With the start of the Atlantic hurricane season fast approaching, experts say now is the time for people to review their tropical storm or hurricane preparation strategies. The Atlantic hurricane season, as determined by the National Hurricane Center, officially begins on June 1.

AccuWeather's team of tropical meteorologists has been cautioning about the risk of a preseason storm for 2022 in their Atlantic hurricane season outlook which was released in late March. Named tropical systems have developed prior to June 1 each year since 2015. May hurricanes, however, are very rare with only five such documented systems since 1863. One such storm was Hurricane Alma, which formed in the same region of the Caribbean that is being watched for development this month.

May Hurricanes (Network 2022)

Elsewhere, an area of disturbed weather well off the coast of Central America over the Pacific Ocean could be a breeding zone for a tropical depression or storm this week.

The potential development zone for this Eastern Pacific feature is many hundreds of miles off the coast and such a system would be highly unlikely to affect land.

More to read:

'Triple-dip' La Niña to influence Pacific hurricane season this year
Coast Guard makes dramatic rescue after rogue wave wrecks sailboat
AccuWeather's 2022 Atlantic hurricane season outlook

Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.

Report a Typo
Comments that don't add to the conversation may be automatically or manually removed by Facebook or AccuWeather. Profanity, personal attacks, and spam will not be tolerated.
Comments
Hide Comments

Top Stories

Severe Weather

Powerful weekend storm to bring rain, possible snow to millions

Dec. 5, 2023
Recreation

Why tornadoes and lightning strikes are a rare combination

Dec. 1, 2023
Weather News

No shortage of Christmas trees this year, but they may be costly

Dec. 5, 2023
Show more Show less Chevron down

Topics

Top Stories

AccuWeather Early

AccuWeather Prime

Astronomy

Climate

Travel

Health

Recreation

Business

Sports

Top Stories

Severe Weather

Powerful weekend storm to bring rain, possible snow to millions

17 hours ago

Weather News

Woman paddleboarding near Bahamas resort killed in shark attack

23 hours ago

Severe Weather

Severe thunderstorms set to threaten millions this weekend

11 hours ago

Weather News

13 climbers killed, 10 missing following Indonesian volcano eruption

19 hours ago

Weather Forecasts

Gushing rain, flooding to continue as atmospheric river slowly shifts

11 hours ago

More Stories

Featured Stories

Weather News

Fifth person found dead after Alaska landslide, boy still missing

1 day ago

Weather News

Turkey prices are down. A deadly bird flu could change that

1 day ago

Severe Weather

More than 300 killed as heavy rains wreak havoc across East Africa

23 hours ago

Weather News

Before birds appeared, mystery animals walked on birdlike feet

1 day ago

Climate

What is COP28? The UN climate summit, explained

1 day ago

AccuWeather Hurricane Warm Caribbean waters could allow preseason tropical threat to brew
Company
Proven Superior Accuracy About AccuWeather Digital Advertising Careers Press Contact Us
Products & Services
For Business For Partners For Advertising AccuWeather APIs AccuWeather Connect RealFeel® and RealFeel Shade™
Apps & Downloads
iPhone App Android App See all Apps & Downloads
Subscription Services
AccuWeather Premium AccuWeather Professional
More
AccuWeather Ready Business Health Hurricane Leisure and Recreation Severe Weather Space and Astronomy Sports Travel Weather News Winter Center
Company
Proven Superior Accuracy About AccuWeather Digital Advertising Careers Press Contact Us
Products & Services
For Business For Partners For Advertising AccuWeather APIs AccuWeather Connect RealFeel® and RealFeel Shade™
Apps & Downloads
iPhone App Android App See all Apps & Downloads
Subscription Services
AccuWeather Premium AccuWeather Professional
More
AccuWeather Ready Business Health Hurricane Leisure and Recreation Severe Weather Space and Astronomy Sports Travel Weather News Winter Center
© 2023 AccuWeather, Inc. "AccuWeather" and sun design are registered trademarks of AccuWeather, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information checkmark Confirmed Not Selling Your Data

We have updated our Privacy Policy and Cookie Policy.

I Understand

Get AccuWeather alerts as they happen with our browser notifications.

Notifications Enabled

Thanks! We’ll keep you informed.

Let's Chat –
AccuAssistant™
ComScore