Tropical trouble near Hawaii, including Hurricane Gilma and Tropical Storm Hone
A flair of tropical activity over the eastern Pacific Ocean has Hawaii on alert with at least two systems heading in the direction of the islands, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter joined Bernie Rayno live on the AccuWeather Network on Aug. 22 to discuss what’s expected for the hurricane season in September.
A flare of tropical activity over the eastern Pacific Ocean has Hawaii on alert. At least two systems— Tropical Storm Hone and Major Hurricane Gilma—are heading in the direction of the islands, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
The first system that AccuWeather has been tracking as a tropical rainstorm since the start of the week was upgraded to Tropical Storm Hone -- pronounced "HOH-neh" -- Thursday afternoon. The 45-mph tropical storm was located about 570 miles to the east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, as of early Friday midday and was moving westward at 16 mph.
Since the storm formed just west of 140 degrees west longitude, it is in the central Pacific basin, which uses names from the Hawaiian language.
Earlier in the week, AccuWeather highlighted the feature as a tropical rainstorm to begin close tracking and raise public awareness.
"Because Hone is rather far to the south, it may stay to the south of the islands as it closes in this weekend to early next week," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, "However, it is in a zone of warmer water and may be more likely to continue as a tropical storm or hurricane, as it gets close."
Historically, the vast majority of tropical cyclones originating in this part of the Pacific that move west continue to move on a westerly course through Hawaii's longitude. This would imply the storm's core would stay south of the islands.
"Flooding rainfall could be a big issue if the system holds together, remains fairly strong and tracks close enough to the islands," DaSilva explained.
Because of the extensive drought, the islands need moisture.
"If Hone loses organization and some of the rain bands fall apart, the lee sides of the mountains may get very little or no rain and may get a lot of wind instead, which could increase the wildfire danger," DaSilva said.
Even with a distant passing storm or a weaker storm approaching the islands from the southeast, breezes and seas will build across the islands this weekend, regardless of shower and thunderstorm activity.
2nd system to watch farther east in the Pacific
Meanwhile, an already-named hurricane is over the eastern Pacific, hundreds of miles to the east of the tropical rainstorm that AccuWeather meteorologists continue to track.
Hurricane Gilma was a 115-mph Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale as of Friday morning and is forecast to remain a major hurricane of at least Category 3 intensity through the end of the week while continuing to travel toward the west-northwest. Gilma was located 1,850 miles to the east of Hilo and was moving west at 8 mph.
"Should this system hold together, it would not be until around the end of the month before it would become a concern for Hawaii," DaSilva said, "It will have to fight for survival as it gets close to Hawaii. While it will be taking a more direct path toward the islands, it will also be entering waters too cool to allow tropical systems to thrive."
Still, in a weakened state, Gilma could bring its own surge of showers, thunderstorms, gusty winds and rough seas to the islands late in the month.
How common are tropical storms and hurricane strikes in Hawaii?
Direct hits by tropical storms and hurricanes are rare in Hawaii, including tropical cyclones approaching from the east as most do. This is because waters are often too cool at Hawaii's latitude and storms that travel farther to the south tend to keep sliding by to the west.
The Big Island and its mountains, which extend to nearly 14,000 feet above sea level, also tend to act as a giant wall or buffer from potent storms coming in from the east that might affect the rest of the String of Pearls.
Olivia was the last tropical storm to make landfall in Hawaii in September 2018. Before reaching Hawaii as a weakening tropical storm, Olivia had reached Category 4 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale for hurricanes. The hardest hit by flooding, rain and wind from Olivia was Maui. Olivia was the first tropical cyclone to make landfall on Maui and Lanai in recorded history.
During the prior month in 2018, Hawaii had a close encounter with a Category 5 hurricane named Lane. Fortunately, Lane weakened substantially and never made landfall in the islands.
Huge waves slam the cliffs near the Halona Blowhole, Friday, Aug. 24, 2018, in Waimanalo, Hawaii. As Hurricane Lane approaches Oahu. Large ocean swells impacted the coastline. (AP Photo/Marco Garcia)
Before Hawaii's greatest natural disaster, which Dora contributed to last August, Iniki from September 1992 was the costliest hurricane. As a Category 4 hurricane, Iniki caused $3.1 billion in damage (1992 USD) as it struck the island of Kauai.
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