Tropical rainstorm to bear down on Central America this weekend
AccuWeather meteorologists are closely watching a tropical rainstorm that will raise the risk of flash flooding in part of Central America this weekend and could potentially strengthen into a tropical storm into Friday.
A batch of showers and thunderstorms traversing the Caribbean Sea could organize into a tropical system before reaching Central America over the weekend.
A tropical rainstorm moving westward across the Caribbean will unleash downpours and gusty thunderstorms that are likely to cause problems in Central America this weekend, AccuWeather meteorologists warn. There’s a low chance that the system could strengthen into a named tropical storm, but there is only a small window of time for it to do so on Friday.
Conditions have become hostile for tropical development over much of the Atlantic basin as areas of dry air and disruptive winds have become more expansive over the past week. However, waters remain relatively warm over much of the basin and especially over the Caribbean.
The Caribbean is the place to watch for tropical development
Water temperatures are generally in the middle 80s F over much of the Caribbean, which is well above the 80-degree threshold for tropical development. However, warm water alone is not enough to kick up a tropical storm or hurricane out of the blue. For that to occur, a disturbance, such as a tropical wave or stalled front, is needed.
AccuWeather meteorologists have been tracking a steadily-moving tropical wave since last week as it approached the Caribbean after emerging from Africa.
The area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical wave has yet to show any organization, but that could change as the feature nears the coast of Central America on Friday and Saturday, AccuWeather Tropical Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said.
This image of the far eastern Pacific and the Caribbean was captured on Friday, Nov. 3, 2023. The area being watched for tropical development is in the center of this image in the west-central Caribbean. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
"Wind shear is quite low at this time over the western Caribbean where this disturbance is headed," DaSilva said.
Wind shear occurs when winds change direction or speed with altitude or across a horizontal plane. When wind shear is strong, it can prevent tropical development or cause a tropical storm or hurricane to weaken.
"Not only is the surface water in the Caribbean warm, but it is warm well below the surface as well," DaSilva added. Deep, warm water is key as a tropical system develops and begins to churn the water. When the water is much cooler just below the surface, that cool water can reach the surface and cause even an established storm to weaken.
Interests in the western Caribbean, particularly in Central America where steering breezes will direct the feature, are being urged by forecasters to keep a close eye on the weather. Should a tropical system develop, there is the potential for it to ramp up quickly due to the warm water and low wind shear. However, forward momentum will take the system swiftly into Central America this weekend, at which point any chance of development would cease on the Caribbean side.
"The pathway to the United States is blocked with this feature, which is why people in Central America and southern Mexico should monitor it," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
Regardless of tropical development, an uptick in downpours, gusty thunderstorms and building seas and surf is expected in Central America. The extent and severity of impacts depend on the organization and strength of the feature through this weekend. Wherever organized rainfall repeatedly tracks over the same locations, conditions may become dangerous or life-threatening with the risk of flash flooding and mudslides.
Several inches of rain may pour down in a few hours in parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala and Belize.
The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is Vince.
As of Friday, Nov. 3, there have been 20 tropical storms, including one unnamed subtropical storm, and seven hurricanes in the Atlantic in 2023. The strongest hurricane of the season thus far was Category 5 Hurricane Lee in September. Lee peaked with 165-mph sustained winds over the southwestern Atlantic.
Pilar quickly on its way out to sea
Tropical Storm Pilar caused heavy rain along El Salvador’s Pacific coastline and is expected to remain offshore for days.
Father to the west, off the Pacific coast of Central America, Tropical Storm Pilar is swirling over the East Pacific.
Pilar made steady progress toward El Salvador during the first part of this week but has completed an anticipated nearly 180-degree turn toward the west and will continue to accelerate out to sea through this weekend.
Water temperatures in the region are just above the critical threshold and not super warm like that, which sparked the rapid intensification of Otis, Norma and Lidia, all in October. Wind shear will increase over this part of the Pacific as well.
"Because of these factors, Pilar is not likely to intensify rapidly and should begin a gradual weakening process to end the week and this weekend as it moves away from Central America," DaSilva said.
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