Tropical Atlantic to simmer into end of June
The tour guide says he’s also helping other tour operators who were directly impacted by the Yellowstone National Park closures.
The warm waters surrounding the Central American coastline will remain a hot spot for potential tropical development over the 10 days or so with the eastern Pacific likely to continue to be favored over the Atlantic side, AccuWeather meteorologists say. However, the chance of tropical development over the western Caribbean and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico may occasionally show a pulse.
During much of the hurricane season, rounds of tropical waves, which are weak areas of low pressure that bring moisture in the form of unorganized showers and thunderstorms, travel westward from central Africa.
In this wide-angle image of the tropical Atlantic, taken on Tuesday, June 21, 2022, the majority of cloud cover was located near Central America (left). Pockets of dust (brown) can be seen along with pockets of moisture (blue sky and clouds) farther to the east over the Atlantic (center and right). (GOES-East/NOAA)
Intertwined with the tropical waves are dry air and dust that originate from the Sahara Desert in northern Africa. Extensive dry air and dust, especially when combined with strong winds, known as wind shear, can be detrimental to tropical development, which has been the case for the past week or so.
The area where tropical activity has been most frequent so far this season has been near Central America. This has been largely due to a broad weak storm system, called the Central American gyre. It is not uncommon for moisture to gather and tropical systems to originate in this area during June, and it is likely to remain an active area through the end of the month and into early July.
The region planted the seeds of Tropical Storm Alex, which was not officially named by the National Hurricane Center until the storm was east of the Florida Peninsula on June 5. However, the system began to organize near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula early in June and brought torrential downpours and flooding to South Florida as a tropical rainstorm during June 3-4.
Since last week, AccuWeather meteorologists have been watching the same general zone, more specifically the western Caribbean, for tropical development. Thus far, no system has developed from the most recent flare of showers and thunderstorms. With such close proximity to land, the window for this disturbance to develop has come to an end.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to be steered inland over Central America and southeastern Mexico due to easterly breezes in the region, as the pathway to the north or toward the United States is blocked by dry air and stiff easterly winds. Locally heavy rain will be possible over land, even as the system does not organize.
The Central American gyre will persist and continue to aid in showers and thunderstorms in the western part of the Caribbean over the next couple of weeks. As this moisture pushes onshore in Central America and southern Mexico, the risk of flash flooding and mudslides will continue.
At the same time, the tropical waves and rounds of dry air will continue to join in from the east. If one of these tropical waves is able to overcome the dry air, it could be enough to spur development, according to AccuWeather's tropical weather experts.
There is also the possibility for steering breezes to become more southeasterly in the region as wind shear drops off toward the end of June. This is about the only way a tropical system might potentially impact the southern U.S. prior to the end of the month.
Another potential trouble spot may evolve off the mid-Atlantic and southern Atlantic coasts of the U.S. from late this week to early next week. There is a remote chance that a non-tropical storm may linger over marginally warm waters long enough to take on some tropical characteristics. Any development in this area would be very slow.
The next tropical storm to develop in the Atlantic basin will be called Bonnie.
Conditions will remain much more favorable for tropical development on the Pacific side of the region into the end of the month as evidenced by the formation of Tropical Storm Celia.
Celia is expected to remain offshore, but shipping interests should continue to monitor the storms and be prepared for rough seas, forecasters say. The system could also produce rip currents along the coasts of southern Mexico, El Salvador and Guatemala.
Another way for a tropical system to develop would be from a stalled front or cluster of thunderstorms that originates from the central or eastern United States and moves out over the Gulf or coastal waters of the Atlantic.
With fronts becoming few and far between over the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico during the summer, that leaves thunderstorm complexes as a possibility. However, tropical development from a land-based thunderstorm complex is uncommon and can typically occur in a shorter period of time, making it a challenge to forecast over the long term.
AccuWeather's tropical weather team of meteorologists, led by Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, expects 2022 to be an above-average year in terms of named storms and direct impacts on the U.S. in general.
The period from June through early August is typically rather quiet over the basin, but a strong uptick in tropical systems tends to occur starting in mid- to late August. The peak of hurricane season is in mid-September, and the season does not officially come to an end until Nov. 30.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.Report a Typo