Tropical activity to ramp up before peak of Atlantic hurricane season

September is peak hurricane season across the Atlantic, and there is a chance that Tropical Storm Gabrielle forms ahead of the upcoming weekend.

It’s officially September, and with the start of meteorological autumn comes the most active month of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The Atlantic basin may get off to a slow start this month, but activity is expected to ramp up as the season approaches its climatological peak. Meanwhile, tropical development is already increasing in the East Pacific, where impacts to land are likely.

Monitoring the eastern Atlantic this week

As the peak of hurricane season nears, the hurricane experts at AccuWeather remain vigilant, monitoring the Atlantic Basin for tropical development. "We continue to forecast a high risk for tropical development off the west coast of Africa during the latter portion of this week," said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.

The most likely days of strengthening would be between Friday and Saturday.

"Due to large amounts of dry air currently in the region, any tropical development and strengthening would likely be gradual. But, it's possible that anything that forms could ramp up to a hurricane by the end of the weekend," DaSilva said.

The next tropical storm or hurricane will be named Gabrielle followed by Humberto.

Tropical development elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean is likely to remain minimal due to a strong area of high pressure and the aforementioned persistent dry, dusty air in the middle of the ocean.

When is the Atlantic expected to get more active?

"While there will be a relative lull in tropical activity during the first few days of September, atmospheric conditions will become a lot more conducive for development later this week and into next week," said DaSilva.

As a result, an uptick in tropical activity is expected in less than a week, which is right on time for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season on Sept. 10.

More tropical waves are expected to come off the western coast of Africa during this time and, with less dust and dry air in the way, it's likely more of these waves will strengthen.

Outside of the open waters of the Atlantic, the Gulf will also bear watching. With very warm waters, the Gulf could fuel the rapid strengthening of any tropical system that develops or moves into the region.

Tropics are active in the eastern Pacific

Hurricane Kiko is churning in the East Pacific more than 1,000 miles west of Mexico. Kiko is forecast to maintain at least major Category 3 hurricane strength in the coming days and continue to move away from North America. Kiko is expected to bring significant impacts to Hawaii next week.

Along with Kiko, Hurricane Lorena, which formed late Monday night, will move near western Mexico this week. Rain and wind impacts are expected across western Mexico through late week and possibly the southwestern U.S. this weekend.

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