Severe Tropical Storm Atsani could become next typhoon in active West Pacific
By
Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Nov 3, 2020 6:40 PM EDT
Villages in the Philippines were underwater and covered in mud on Nov. 1, after Typhoon Goni battered the country.
Severe Tropical Storm Atsani is expected to be the next tropical system to strike flood-weary southeastern Asia, but forecasters caution it will likely not be the last tropical threat in the region during the first half of November.
On Oct. 29, the same day that ferocious Typhoon Goni struck the Philippines, Atsani strengthened to a tropical storm. After stalling over the Philippine Sea for several days, Atsani strengthened into a severe tropical storm on Nov. 4.
"Atsani began to track westward late this week and will move into a more favorable environment for strengthening," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
With less disturbed, and thus warmer waters ahead of Atsani, the severe tropical storm will have the opportunity to become a typhoon into Thursday night or early Friday, local time. Atsani is also known as Siony in the Philippines.
A typhoon would pack sustained winds of at least 119 km/h (74 mph), equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane in the Atlantic or East Pacific Ocean basins.
Areas most at risk for impacts such as flooding rainfall and damaging wind gusts would be the Babuyan Islands and the southern tip of Taiwan Thursday night and Friday.
As bands of heavy rain and strong winds batter these areas, wind gusts of 95-130 km/h (60-80 mph) are possible. This can lead to power outages and minor tree and structural damage.
The greatest threat for flooding rainfall through Friday will be found across southeastern-most Taiwan where 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) can fall into the start of the weekend.
The window for strengthening will be short lived as Atsani heads into the frequented waters of the South China Sea, which should be less favorable for the tropical system.
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As Atsani continues westward and skirts the southern coast of China, it is expected to lose wind intensity, lessening some of the possible impacts to southern China and eventually Vietnam. This is good news for an area that has been pummeled by tropical rain and damaging winds.
All but one named tropical system that formed in the West Pacific Ocean during the month of October impacted southern China or Vietnam, including several typhoons.
Soldiers and villagers dig through mud after a landslide swamps a village in Phuoc Loc district, Quang Nam province, Vietnam, on Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020. Three separated landslides triggered by typhoon Molave killed over a dozen villagers and left dozens more missing in the province as rescuers scramble to recover more victims. (Lai Minh Dong/VNA via AP)
Even if winds do not pose a significant threat as the storm approaches Vietnam late in the weekend and early next week, Atsani's moisture could lead to more heavy rain across central Vietnam, worsening any ongoing flooding and slowing recover from the recent onslaught of tropical systems.
While Atsani could be the next named storm to impact the hard-hit region of southeastern Asia, it is not the only tropical threat looming.
Into the middle of the month, AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor the western Philippine Sea for further tropical development.
At this time, there is a medium potential for development in this zone. Something could form as early this weekend as another area of low pressure approaches the Philippines.
A second system could form early next week across the Philippine Sea, threatening further impacts.
Whether or not more organized systems develop, the Philippines are likely to endure at least one or two more rounds of enhanced, heavy rainfall in the coming week or so.
"Following behind Goni and the devastation it brought to the Philippines, the islands could really use a break from tropical systems to have time to recover and clean up," said Nicholls.
In the final week of October, two dangerous typhoons, Molave and Goni, struck the Philippines. So far, almost four dozen deaths have been attributed to the destructive duo.
More tropical systems, at any strength, are likely to hinder recovery efforts across the storm-battered parts of Asia.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Hurricane
Severe Tropical Storm Atsani could become next typhoon in active West Pacific
By Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Nov 3, 2020 6:40 PM EDT
Villages in the Philippines were underwater and covered in mud on Nov. 1, after Typhoon Goni battered the country.
Severe Tropical Storm Atsani is expected to be the next tropical system to strike flood-weary southeastern Asia, but forecasters caution it will likely not be the last tropical threat in the region during the first half of November.
On Oct. 29, the same day that ferocious Typhoon Goni struck the Philippines, Atsani strengthened to a tropical storm. After stalling over the Philippine Sea for several days, Atsani strengthened into a severe tropical storm on Nov. 4.
"Atsani began to track westward late this week and will move into a more favorable environment for strengthening," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
With less disturbed, and thus warmer waters ahead of Atsani, the severe tropical storm will have the opportunity to become a typhoon into Thursday night or early Friday, local time. Atsani is also known as Siony in the Philippines.
A typhoon would pack sustained winds of at least 119 km/h (74 mph), equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane in the Atlantic or East Pacific Ocean basins.
Areas most at risk for impacts such as flooding rainfall and damaging wind gusts would be the Babuyan Islands and the southern tip of Taiwan Thursday night and Friday.
As bands of heavy rain and strong winds batter these areas, wind gusts of 95-130 km/h (60-80 mph) are possible. This can lead to power outages and minor tree and structural damage.
The greatest threat for flooding rainfall through Friday will be found across southeastern-most Taiwan where 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) can fall into the start of the weekend.
The window for strengthening will be short lived as Atsani heads into the frequented waters of the South China Sea, which should be less favorable for the tropical system.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
As Atsani continues westward and skirts the southern coast of China, it is expected to lose wind intensity, lessening some of the possible impacts to southern China and eventually Vietnam. This is good news for an area that has been pummeled by tropical rain and damaging winds.
All but one named tropical system that formed in the West Pacific Ocean during the month of October impacted southern China or Vietnam, including several typhoons.
Soldiers and villagers dig through mud after a landslide swamps a village in Phuoc Loc district, Quang Nam province, Vietnam, on Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020. Three separated landslides triggered by typhoon Molave killed over a dozen villagers and left dozens more missing in the province as rescuers scramble to recover more victims. (Lai Minh Dong/VNA via AP)
Even if winds do not pose a significant threat as the storm approaches Vietnam late in the weekend and early next week, Atsani's moisture could lead to more heavy rain across central Vietnam, worsening any ongoing flooding and slowing recover from the recent onslaught of tropical systems.
While Atsani could be the next named storm to impact the hard-hit region of southeastern Asia, it is not the only tropical threat looming.
Related:
Into the middle of the month, AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor the western Philippine Sea for further tropical development.
At this time, there is a medium potential for development in this zone. Something could form as early this weekend as another area of low pressure approaches the Philippines.
A second system could form early next week across the Philippine Sea, threatening further impacts.
Whether or not more organized systems develop, the Philippines are likely to endure at least one or two more rounds of enhanced, heavy rainfall in the coming week or so.
"Following behind Goni and the devastation it brought to the Philippines, the islands could really use a break from tropical systems to have time to recover and clean up," said Nicholls.
In the final week of October, two dangerous typhoons, Molave and Goni, struck the Philippines. So far, almost four dozen deaths have been attributed to the destructive duo.
More tropical systems, at any strength, are likely to hinder recovery efforts across the storm-battered parts of Asia.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo