Leeward Islands on alert as Tropical Storm Philippe threatens rain, wind
Where will Philippe and Rina head? Are more threats on the horizon? Here’s everything you need to know.
The calendar has flipped to October, but tropical threats continue to loom in the Atlantic and East Pacific Ocean Basins.
Oftentimes, tropical activity will start winding down during the month of October as the season nears its end on Nov. 30. This year, AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring several threats into the first few weeks of the new month.
Philippe to sideswipe Caribbean Islands
Philippe first became a tropical storm back on Sept. 23 in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Ever since, the storm as been slowly moving in a general westward direction, creeping closer to North America. Throughout the final week of September, Philippe failed to strengthen into a hurricane because of persistent wind shear, or disruptive winds, across much of the storm's path.
Even though wind shear is forecast to prevent Philippe from becoming a hurricane through at least Tuesday, portions of the Caribbean can anticipate tropical impacts into midweek.
"Philippe's westward movement the past few days has brought the storm close enough to the northeastern Leeward Islands for there to be impacts," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva.
Through Wednesday morning, the storm's rainfall is expected to scrape islands from Dominica and Guadeloupe to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches of rain is forecasted for these locations, with the risk of 2-4 inches along the far-northeastern Leeward Islands and into eastern Puerto Rico, and 4-8 inches possible across far eastern Guadeloupe to Antigua and Barbuda. An AccuWeather Local StormMax of 9 inches of rain is also possible where any heavier bands develop.
"The heavy tropical downpours could bring localized flooding in the islands," DaSilva said.
Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the island nation of Antigua and Barbuda, along with Anguilla through early Tuesday evening.
Due to the expected localized impacts to the northeastward Caribbean, Philippe is a less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the northeastern Caribbean.
Some of these same islands were impacted by Hurricane Lee just a few weeks ago. The powerful storm peaked as a Category 5 hurricane on Sept. 8 after rapidly intensifying. Lee's center passed just to the northeast of the Leeward Islands, but its outer bands were still able to bring some rain and gusty winds before it struck the United States and Canada.
As the week progresses, Philippe will move into an area of lesser wind shear, giving the storm a brief window midweek to become a hurricane. By the end of the week, Philippe will move over cool enough waters and allow for it to lose wind intensity.
AccuWeather hurricane experts say next threat will shift to East Pacific
Aside from Philippe, AccuWeather hurricane experts say the Atlantic Basin will turn quieter again, with no new development expected through the next week.
"El Nino conditions are forecast to finally start kicking in across the Atlantic Ocean, leading to increasing and more widespread wind shear," said DaSilva, who further explained that these conditions could inhibit development, especially out in the open waters of the Atlantic.
For the middle and end of October, locations closer to land may become the more favorable locations for tropical development in the Atlantic. This is typical during the months of October and November.
Also typical in an El Nino pattern is an uptick in tropical activity across the East Pacific. Tropical Storm Lidia formed south of Mexico on Tuesday morning, and AccuWeather forecasters continue to eye an area south of Mexico for possible tropical development during the first week of October. Depending on the developing storm's track and intensity, tropical rain bands and rough surf may impact portions of the southwestern Mexico coast.
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