Hurricane Marie to avoid Mexico, Hawaii
By
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Sep 29, 2020 4:47 PM EST
It may be near the end of the tropical season, but October hurricanes like Sandy, Matthew and Michael still packed a punch.
Although tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific has been taking a back seat compared to the Atlantic's record pace, the basin has been active periodically and this week will be no exception. There is a chance that some tropical moisture from Marie could become intertwined in California's weather prior to mid-October.
Tropical Depression 18-E formed early Tuesday morning as it was spinning 670 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula of Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The storm strengthened into Tropical Storm Marie later Tuesday before becoming a hurricane on Wednesday afternoon, making Marie the fourth hurricane of the season. On Thursday evening, Marie had rapidly strengthened to a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph.
This is the third major hurricane (Category 3 or higher with winds of at least 111 mph) of the season in the East Pacific. Strengthening continued early Friday morning, as Marie became a Category 4 storm with winds of 130 mph. Category 4 storms pack winds between 130 and 156 mph.
This image, captured late Friday morning, local time, Oct. 2, 2020, shows Hurricane Marie swirling about 1,000 miles west-southwest of Baja California, Mexico. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)
"This storm should track west then west-northwest away from the west coast of Mexico through this weekend," according to AccuWeather's top hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski.
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Now that Marie has attainted Category 4 status with maximum sustained winds of 130-157 mph, it joins former 2020 basin hurricanes Genevieve and Douglas, which were both Category 4 storms.
Despite moving well away from land, large swells created by the tropical cyclone will propagate to the east and bring a rough and dangerous surf to the west coast of Mexico later this week.
The system is forecast to gradually weaken over cool waters as it continues to move in a northwesterly direction this weekend to early next week.
At this time, the system does not pose a threat to Hawaii.
But, AccuWeather meteorologists are pondering the possibility that some moisture from Marie might circulate toward the California coast from late next week to the second weekend of October. This would occur around the time of a potential pattern change that would bring much lower temperatures and perhaps some moisture from the North Pacific toward the West Coast of the United States.
Such a pattern change would be more than welcome for crews battling numerous wildfires and people concerned about their homes and businesses being in the path of the blazes.
Additional tropical cyclone formation is possible over the Eastern Pacific basin next week, just off the coast of Central America and southwestern Mexico.
Prior to this system, there have been 12 tropical storms with three hurricanes and two major hurricanes so far this season. A major hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The pace is fairly close to average. During a typical season, there are an average of 15.4 tropical storms with 7.6 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes in the basin.
Two hurricanes reached Category 4 status with maximum sustained winds of at least 130 mph, including Douglas in late July and Genevieve in the middle of August.
"There is a significant chance that Marie will get stronger than Douglas and Genevieve with winds that could hit 140 mph or greater," Kottlowski said.
Douglas survived as a hurricane as it passed north of the Hawaiian Islands. Despite this rare achievement, the islands were spared hurricane conditions with the eyewall passing by to the north.
Genevieve never made landfall in Mexico, but its close proximity to the coast delivered locally heavy rain, strong winds and pounding surf to the coastal areas including the southern part of the Baja Peninsula of Mexico. Some leftover moisture from the storm, after it diminished, was pulled northward into the western United States, where it helped to trigger mainly dry thunderstorms, some of which ignited wildfires.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs until the end of November.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Hurricane
Hurricane Marie to avoid Mexico, Hawaii
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Sep 29, 2020 4:47 PM EST
It may be near the end of the tropical season, but October hurricanes like Sandy, Matthew and Michael still packed a punch.
Although tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific has been taking a back seat compared to the Atlantic's record pace, the basin has been active periodically and this week will be no exception. There is a chance that some tropical moisture from Marie could become intertwined in California's weather prior to mid-October.
Tropical Depression 18-E formed early Tuesday morning as it was spinning 670 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula of Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The storm strengthened into Tropical Storm Marie later Tuesday before becoming a hurricane on Wednesday afternoon, making Marie the fourth hurricane of the season. On Thursday evening, Marie had rapidly strengthened to a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph.
This is the third major hurricane (Category 3 or higher with winds of at least 111 mph) of the season in the East Pacific. Strengthening continued early Friday morning, as Marie became a Category 4 storm with winds of 130 mph. Category 4 storms pack winds between 130 and 156 mph.
This image, captured late Friday morning, local time, Oct. 2, 2020, shows Hurricane Marie swirling about 1,000 miles west-southwest of Baja California, Mexico. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)
"This storm should track west then west-northwest away from the west coast of Mexico through this weekend," according to AccuWeather's top hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Now that Marie has attainted Category 4 status with maximum sustained winds of 130-157 mph, it joins former 2020 basin hurricanes Genevieve and Douglas, which were both Category 4 storms.
Despite moving well away from land, large swells created by the tropical cyclone will propagate to the east and bring a rough and dangerous surf to the west coast of Mexico later this week.
The system is forecast to gradually weaken over cool waters as it continues to move in a northwesterly direction this weekend to early next week.
At this time, the system does not pose a threat to Hawaii.
But, AccuWeather meteorologists are pondering the possibility that some moisture from Marie might circulate toward the California coast from late next week to the second weekend of October. This would occur around the time of a potential pattern change that would bring much lower temperatures and perhaps some moisture from the North Pacific toward the West Coast of the United States.
Such a pattern change would be more than welcome for crews battling numerous wildfires and people concerned about their homes and businesses being in the path of the blazes.
Additional tropical cyclone formation is possible over the Eastern Pacific basin next week, just off the coast of Central America and southwestern Mexico.
Prior to this system, there have been 12 tropical storms with three hurricanes and two major hurricanes so far this season. A major hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The pace is fairly close to average. During a typical season, there are an average of 15.4 tropical storms with 7.6 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes in the basin.
Two hurricanes reached Category 4 status with maximum sustained winds of at least 130 mph, including Douglas in late July and Genevieve in the middle of August.
"There is a significant chance that Marie will get stronger than Douglas and Genevieve with winds that could hit 140 mph or greater," Kottlowski said.
Douglas survived as a hurricane as it passed north of the Hawaiian Islands. Despite this rare achievement, the islands were spared hurricane conditions with the eyewall passing by to the north.
Related:
Genevieve never made landfall in Mexico, but its close proximity to the coast delivered locally heavy rain, strong winds and pounding surf to the coastal areas including the southern part of the Baja Peninsula of Mexico. Some leftover moisture from the storm, after it diminished, was pulled northward into the western United States, where it helped to trigger mainly dry thunderstorms, some of which ignited wildfires.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs until the end of November.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo