East Pacific tropical activity calming amid cool waters
By
Renee Duff, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Jul 20, 2021 3:29 PM EDT
AccuWeather's Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite shows Felicia and Guillermo swirling in the East Pacific early Monday morning, July 19, 2021. Both storms have since lost wind intensity and become much less discernible on satellite as of early Tuesday morning, July 20, 2021.
As AccuWeather's tropical experts monitor the Atlantic basin for any signs of life, Felicia and Guillermo will continue to churn harmlessly across the open waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean this week.
The East Pacific was devoid of activity for nearly two weeks after Enrique dissipated in the Gulf of California on June 30. That all changed last week with the formation of Felicia. At its peak, Felicia was a very powerful and compact Category 4 hurricane (maximum-sustained winds of 130-156 mph) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Felicia has since run into a much less conducive environment for tropical systems, resulting in a rapid loss in wind intensity. As of 8 a.m. PDT Tuesday, Felicia was a 40-mph tropical storm.
"Sea-surface temperatures ahead of Felicia are cooler than required to maintain its current intensity, thus a continued reduction in wind intensity is expected," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
"Felicia may no longer be an organized tropical entity by the time it passes south of the Hawaiian Islands from late Thursday through Friday, local time," Douty added.
Regardless, increased swells will likely be observed later this week across south- and east-facing shores.
Besides Felicia, AccuWeather meteorologists are also monitoring Guillermo, which formed on Saturday in the East Pacific. After a brief bout as a tropical storm, it has since weakened into a tropical depression. As of 8 a.m. PDT Tuesday, Guillermo was 1,005 miles west-southwest of the tip of Baja California, Mexico, and moving west at about 17 mph. Maximum-sustained winds were at 35 mph. At one point on Sunday afternoon, Guillermo's winds were as high as 60 mph.
Guillermo was at a higher latitude than Felicia, leading it across cooler waters much faster than its predecessor, according to Douty.
This, coupled with increasing wind shear has lead to the quick diminishment of the storm.
The system is likely to lose status as a depression by midweek and degenerate into a post-tropical system over the open ocean, according to Douty.
Shipping interests should take care to avoid both Felicia and Guillermo this week due to the dangerous seas being churned up by both storms.
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In the wake of these two storms, there are no immediate concerns for additional development in the basin.
AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting 14-18 named storms in the Eastern Pacific this season, with six to 10 expected to become hurricanes.
Why is the Atlantic so quiet?
The Atlantic Ocean has been in the midst of a lull in tropical activity since the dissipation of Elsa over the northern part of the basin on July 14.
AccuWeather meteorologists are contributing a couple of factors to this -- expansive areas of dry air and wind shear.
"The air mass across the central Atlantic is very dry, precluding the development of any significant [shower and thunderstorm activity] thus far and also preventing any further development from any tropical waves passing across the region," Douty said.
"This air mass is expected to remain prohibitive for any tropical development for the next several days at least," Douty added.
Douty noted that strong wind shear across the Caribbean will also continue to help keep tropical activity at bay through the week.
There is sometimes a period of low tropical activity even after a fast start. Even in the record-setting 2020 season in which 30 named storms developed in the Atlantic, there were no storms between July 12 and July 21. That has been and continues to be the case this season.
"Those who live in hurricane-prone areas should not let their guard down though, as the peak of the season typically occurs in mid-August and lasts until late September," AccuWeather Meteorologist Ryan Adamson said.
AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting 16-20 named systems for the Atlantic basin for the 2021 season with seven to 10 hurricanes and up to five direct impacts on the United States. So far, Claudette, Danny and Elsa have all impacted the U.S.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
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News / Hurricane
East Pacific tropical activity calming amid cool waters
By Renee Duff, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Jul 20, 2021 3:29 PM EDT
AccuWeather's Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite shows Felicia and Guillermo swirling in the East Pacific early Monday morning, July 19, 2021. Both storms have since lost wind intensity and become much less discernible on satellite as of early Tuesday morning, July 20, 2021.
As AccuWeather's tropical experts monitor the Atlantic basin for any signs of life, Felicia and Guillermo will continue to churn harmlessly across the open waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean this week.
The East Pacific was devoid of activity for nearly two weeks after Enrique dissipated in the Gulf of California on June 30. That all changed last week with the formation of Felicia. At its peak, Felicia was a very powerful and compact Category 4 hurricane (maximum-sustained winds of 130-156 mph) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Felicia has since run into a much less conducive environment for tropical systems, resulting in a rapid loss in wind intensity. As of 8 a.m. PDT Tuesday, Felicia was a 40-mph tropical storm.
"Sea-surface temperatures ahead of Felicia are cooler than required to maintain its current intensity, thus a continued reduction in wind intensity is expected," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
"Felicia may no longer be an organized tropical entity by the time it passes south of the Hawaiian Islands from late Thursday through Friday, local time," Douty added.
Regardless, increased swells will likely be observed later this week across south- and east-facing shores.
Besides Felicia, AccuWeather meteorologists are also monitoring Guillermo, which formed on Saturday in the East Pacific. After a brief bout as a tropical storm, it has since weakened into a tropical depression. As of 8 a.m. PDT Tuesday, Guillermo was 1,005 miles west-southwest of the tip of Baja California, Mexico, and moving west at about 17 mph. Maximum-sustained winds were at 35 mph. At one point on Sunday afternoon, Guillermo's winds were as high as 60 mph.
Guillermo was at a higher latitude than Felicia, leading it across cooler waters much faster than its predecessor, according to Douty.
This, coupled with increasing wind shear has lead to the quick diminishment of the storm.
The system is likely to lose status as a depression by midweek and degenerate into a post-tropical system over the open ocean, according to Douty.
Shipping interests should take care to avoid both Felicia and Guillermo this week due to the dangerous seas being churned up by both storms.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
In the wake of these two storms, there are no immediate concerns for additional development in the basin.
AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting 14-18 named storms in the Eastern Pacific this season, with six to 10 expected to become hurricanes.
Why is the Atlantic so quiet?
The Atlantic Ocean has been in the midst of a lull in tropical activity since the dissipation of Elsa over the northern part of the basin on July 14.
AccuWeather meteorologists are contributing a couple of factors to this -- expansive areas of dry air and wind shear.
"The air mass across the central Atlantic is very dry, precluding the development of any significant [shower and thunderstorm activity] thus far and also preventing any further development from any tropical waves passing across the region," Douty said.
"This air mass is expected to remain prohibitive for any tropical development for the next several days at least," Douty added.
Douty noted that strong wind shear across the Caribbean will also continue to help keep tropical activity at bay through the week.
There is sometimes a period of low tropical activity even after a fast start. Even in the record-setting 2020 season in which 30 named storms developed in the Atlantic, there were no storms between July 12 and July 21. That has been and continues to be the case this season.
"Those who live in hurricane-prone areas should not let their guard down though, as the peak of the season typically occurs in mid-August and lasts until late September," AccuWeather Meteorologist Ryan Adamson said.
AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting 16-20 named systems for the Atlantic basin for the 2021 season with seven to 10 hurricanes and up to five direct impacts on the United States. So far, Claudette, Danny and Elsa have all impacted the U.S.
IN OTHER NEWS:
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
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