Atlantic unusually quiet at hurricane season’s peak, but warm waters to fuel storms soon
A rare lull has settled over the Atlantic during the peak of hurricane season, but with Saharan dust and dry air to fade, warm waters and new tropical waves could soon reignite activity from Africa to the United States.
For only the ninth year since 1950, there were no named storms in the Atlantic on Sept. 10, but the weeks ahead could bring new tropical threats.
As a rare lull continues at the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, AccuWeather hurricane experts remain on alert for tropical storm development. Several areas will be monitored in the coming weeks, and with unusually warm waters across much of the basin, tropical activity could escalate quickly.
"Wednesday was the first climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in nearly a decade without a named storm in the basin," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
This is the time of year when Atlantic water temperatures typically peak and atmospheric conditions are most conducive to tropical development. According to historical data, the frequency of storms in the Atlantic basin is highest on average on Sept. 10.
"No tropical storms or hurricanes over the Atlantic basin on Sept. 10 has only happened three times over the last 30 years," DaSilva said. And since 1950, there have only been eight total years without a tropical storm or greater over the Atlantic for the peak date.
“It is unusual for the tropics to be this quiet, but not unexpected," DaSilva said. "In March, when we issued our hurricane season forecast, we predicted that surges of dry air could lead to a midseason lull."
AccuWeather's team of meteorologists expects the second half of the hurricane season to be more active than the first.
What lies ahead?
"The dry air and Saharan dust in place now should start to clear out of the Atlantic main development region this weekend," DaSilva added. "Atmospheric conditions that are conducive to tropical development are expected to return in the second half of the month.”
“There is a low risk that a new tropical wave moving across the primary Atlantic development region could develop in the coming days," DaSilva said.
This image of the entire tropical Atlantic basin was captured at midday on Tuesday, Sept. 9, 2025, and shows a lack of organized tropical systems. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
During hurricane season, between 40 and 60 tropical waves drift westward across the Atlantic. On average, one in five evolves into a tropical storm or hurricane, but the percentage can be much higher during active stretches near the peak of the season.
"We expect several tropical waves from Africa to push off the western coast in the next few weeks, posing a risk for Atlantic hurricane development," DaSilva warned.
Meanwhile, thousands of miles to the northwest and just a few dozen miles off the southern Atlantic Coast of the United States, a cold front could spin up tropical development this weekend or early next week," DaSilva said.
Conditions could quickly become favorable for tropical development over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and steering winds could guide any system toward the southeastern U.S.
In August, Hurricane Erin 2025 was large and powerful enough to stir up heavy surf, cause coastal flooding, and trigger significant beach erosion for days. It also produced upwelling along its path, a process brought cold waters from the depths to the sea surface.
Tropical storms and hurricanes thrive on water temperatures of about 80 F or higher. When below that, a tropical system may fail to form, or an established system may lose intensity.
Water temperatures have recovered along much of Erin’s path. Across the tropical Atlantic, sea surface temperatures are now well above the historical September average in many areas and are especially warm in much of the Gulf and the northwest Caribbean.
There are indications that atmospheric pressures will slowly fall over the western Caribbean to the central Gulf toward the middle of the month. When this happens, tropical development becomes mor likely, especially if one of the waves from the east interacts and causes numerous thunderstorms to erupt, linger and consolidate.
Tropical development in this area could impact the western Caribbean and even parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast, depending on steering winds. Gabrielle is the next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
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