All eyes on coastal Atlantic for possible tropical development
By
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published May 6, 2022 12:28 PM EDT
|
Updated May 9, 2022 3:17 AM EDT
The same storm that soaked portions of the central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic region for days could eventually transform into the first named tropical depression or named system of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, AccuWeather forecasters say.
Even if a tropical or subtropical system doesn't take shape, adverse coastal conditions loom for areas from New York to Florida.
On Sunday, cool conditions with highs ranging from the 50s to the mid-60s prompted the need for a jacket or sweater for those that headed out for Mother's Day dinners.
"From coastal New York to Virginia, east to northeast winds are likely to blow steadily between 15 and 30 mph with gusts frequenting 35-50 mph," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said.
Stiff winds will persist along the mid-Atlantic beaches into the middle of this week and ongoing rough surf will cause episodes of coastal flooding and beach erosion, Dombek added.
These same rough conditions will also spread hundreds of miles farther to the south along the Atlantic coast to the Carolinas, Georgia and even northeastern Florida. Cities prone to coastal flooding during prolonged episodes of onshore winds and above normal tides include Wildwood, New Jersey; Norfolk, Virginia; Nags Head, North Carolina; and Charleston, South Carolina.
"Strong and frequent rip currents will spread southward as well," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said.
In the mid-Atlantic, water temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s will be a deterrent for swimmers. However, along the southern Atlantic coast, surf temperatures are mainly in the 70s and will tend to draw more people into the surf zone.
"The offshore storm will create a zone of cloudy, cool, windy and wet conditions along the southern Atlantic coast, during the first half of the week," Lundberg said, adding, "the weather will trend warmer and more humid during the latter part of the week into the following weekend."
That warmer and more humid trend in the Southeast region may lend a hint at some other goings-on over the nearby Atlantic and perhaps the storm itself.
This weekend, with the storm finally over the Atlantic, there is chilly air near its center, which is typical for a non-tropical system. However, over the course of the week, there is some indication that the center of the storm will trend warmer since it will linger over warm water.
Because of the amount of time the storm will spend over warmer waters of the western Atlantic, there is a chance it could develop some tropical characteristics. A storm that develops some tropical traits is known as a subtropical system.
"The chance of subtropical development is low, but not zero in this case toward the end of the week and into the weekend," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
As of Sunday, May 8, water temperatures along and a few hundred miles off the coast from northern Florida to North Carolina are generally below the threshold for a tropical development, which is approximately 77 F. However, there can still be some development as far as a subtropical or hybrid system in this case, especially if the center forms near the Gulf Stream where water is slightly warmer, Buckingham said.
Should the system develop a small, closed circulation with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph or greater, a subtropical depression could be declared by the National Hurricane Center. The first name on the list of tropical and subtropical storms for the 2022 season is Alex. In order for this to occur, the system would have to produce maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater.
The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1.
There have been seven straight years of pre-season development in the Atlantic with the most recent example being Tropical Storm Ana, which formed on May 22, 2021, over the middle of the Atlantic. The last storm to be named Alex developed just north of the Bahamas on Jan. 12, 2016, and went on to become the first Atlantic hurricane ever to develop during the first month of the year since Alice in 1955.
AccuWeather's team of tropical weather forecasters, led by Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, predicted that there would be a high chance for a pre-season storm in its 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast which was released in late March.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
AccuWeather forecasters are focusing on an area southeast of the North Carolina coast to the northeast of Florida's Atlantic coast to the northeastern corner of the Gulf of Mexico as the zone with the potential for tropical development.
Soaking, non-flooding rain from a subtropical system that drifts onshore would generally be welcomed along the coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia late this week as much of the region is experiencing abnormally dry to severe short-term drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. However, due to weak steering currents in this area, there is also the possibility that any feature that forms could drop excessive rainfall in some locations, which could lead to flooding.
If the storm over the Atlantic wanders back toward the southern Atlantic coast, regardless of subtropical development or not, the clearing trend that begins through early this week would cease and reverse. Clouds and showers could migrate westward from the mid-Atlantic to the central Appalachians.
The storm forecast to stall and potentially evolve into a subtropical system in the western Atlantic is part of a much larger atmospheric traffic jam that will develop over much of the United States. The same pattern will lead to days of sunshine and allow a heat wave to unfold over part of the Central states, as well as a prolonged period of chilly, wet and snowy conditions from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies.
For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.
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News / Hurricane
All eyes on coastal Atlantic for possible tropical development
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published May 6, 2022 12:28 PM EDT | Updated May 9, 2022 3:17 AM EDT
The same storm that soaked portions of the central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic region for days could eventually transform into the first named tropical depression or named system of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, AccuWeather forecasters say.
Even if a tropical or subtropical system doesn't take shape, adverse coastal conditions loom for areas from New York to Florida.
On Sunday, cool conditions with highs ranging from the 50s to the mid-60s prompted the need for a jacket or sweater for those that headed out for Mother's Day dinners.
"From coastal New York to Virginia, east to northeast winds are likely to blow steadily between 15 and 30 mph with gusts frequenting 35-50 mph," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said.
Stiff winds will persist along the mid-Atlantic beaches into the middle of this week and ongoing rough surf will cause episodes of coastal flooding and beach erosion, Dombek added.
These same rough conditions will also spread hundreds of miles farther to the south along the Atlantic coast to the Carolinas, Georgia and even northeastern Florida. Cities prone to coastal flooding during prolonged episodes of onshore winds and above normal tides include Wildwood, New Jersey; Norfolk, Virginia; Nags Head, North Carolina; and Charleston, South Carolina.
"Strong and frequent rip currents will spread southward as well," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said.
In the mid-Atlantic, water temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s will be a deterrent for swimmers. However, along the southern Atlantic coast, surf temperatures are mainly in the 70s and will tend to draw more people into the surf zone.
"The offshore storm will create a zone of cloudy, cool, windy and wet conditions along the southern Atlantic coast, during the first half of the week," Lundberg said, adding, "the weather will trend warmer and more humid during the latter part of the week into the following weekend."
That warmer and more humid trend in the Southeast region may lend a hint at some other goings-on over the nearby Atlantic and perhaps the storm itself.
This weekend, with the storm finally over the Atlantic, there is chilly air near its center, which is typical for a non-tropical system. However, over the course of the week, there is some indication that the center of the storm will trend warmer since it will linger over warm water.
Because of the amount of time the storm will spend over warmer waters of the western Atlantic, there is a chance it could develop some tropical characteristics. A storm that develops some tropical traits is known as a subtropical system.
"The chance of subtropical development is low, but not zero in this case toward the end of the week and into the weekend," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
As of Sunday, May 8, water temperatures along and a few hundred miles off the coast from northern Florida to North Carolina are generally below the threshold for a tropical development, which is approximately 77 F. However, there can still be some development as far as a subtropical or hybrid system in this case, especially if the center forms near the Gulf Stream where water is slightly warmer, Buckingham said.
Should the system develop a small, closed circulation with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph or greater, a subtropical depression could be declared by the National Hurricane Center. The first name on the list of tropical and subtropical storms for the 2022 season is Alex. In order for this to occur, the system would have to produce maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater.
The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1.
There have been seven straight years of pre-season development in the Atlantic with the most recent example being Tropical Storm Ana, which formed on May 22, 2021, over the middle of the Atlantic. The last storm to be named Alex developed just north of the Bahamas on Jan. 12, 2016, and went on to become the first Atlantic hurricane ever to develop during the first month of the year since Alice in 1955.
AccuWeather's team of tropical weather forecasters, led by Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, predicted that there would be a high chance for a pre-season storm in its 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast which was released in late March.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
AccuWeather forecasters are focusing on an area southeast of the North Carolina coast to the northeast of Florida's Atlantic coast to the northeastern corner of the Gulf of Mexico as the zone with the potential for tropical development.
Soaking, non-flooding rain from a subtropical system that drifts onshore would generally be welcomed along the coasts of the Carolinas and Georgia late this week as much of the region is experiencing abnormally dry to severe short-term drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. However, due to weak steering currents in this area, there is also the possibility that any feature that forms could drop excessive rainfall in some locations, which could lead to flooding.
If the storm over the Atlantic wanders back toward the southern Atlantic coast, regardless of subtropical development or not, the clearing trend that begins through early this week would cease and reverse. Clouds and showers could migrate westward from the mid-Atlantic to the central Appalachians.
The storm forecast to stall and potentially evolve into a subtropical system in the western Atlantic is part of a much larger atmospheric traffic jam that will develop over much of the United States. The same pattern will lead to days of sunshine and allow a heat wave to unfold over part of the Central states, as well as a prolonged period of chilly, wet and snowy conditions from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies.
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For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.
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