Tropical storm Alvin, first of 2025 season, spinning northward in eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Alvin continues to move northward over the eastern Pacific and is expected to bring downpours to northwestern Mexico on Saturday.
AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on May 21 to discuss AccuWeather’s 2025 hurricane season forecast. The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1.
The first tropical depression of 2025 formed over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Wednesday and has become Tropical Storm Alvin. The tropical storm will threaten land in western Mexico with wind, rain and pounding surf.
Long before the depression formed, AccuWeather meteorologists were monitoring the Pacific and dubbed a batch of gathering showers and thunderstorms a tropical rainstorm. That area of concern evolved into Tropical Depression One on Wednesday afternoon. Winds are currently 60 mph with higher gusts.
While Alvin was struggling with pockets of dry air near its center at midweek, it did have some favorable conditions higher up in the atmosphere, which allowed it to strengthen and become organized.
As AccuWeather's team of meteorologists accurately predicted, Alvin was maintaining tropical storm intensity on Friday. As of Friday morning, maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph. A tropical storm has sustained winds ranging from 39 mph to 73 mph.
Alvin is expected to remain at tropical storm status through early Saturday, though a small decrease in wind intensity will occur as Alvin moves northward through cooler ocean waters.
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Since that Alvin is spread out, showers and thunderstorms will reach portions of Baja California Sur. Any heavier downpours can lead to localized flooding, mudslides and travel impacts.
As Alvin moves over progressively colder waters near the Baja Peninsula on Saturday, it should lose strength quickly, become a tropical rainstorm or possibly become unrecognizable before moving over land in northwestern Mexico.
Some moisture from the storm is likely to be drawn up over the Sierra Madre and may reach into parts of New Mexico and Arizona from Sunday to Monday. That moisture will coalesce with surging moisture from the Gulf and also from Pacific waters near California.
"Showers and thunderstorms will likely become more prolific over the interior western United States next week and could escalate to the point of triggering rapid and dangerous flooding problems when combined with high country snowmelt in parts of the Rockies," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
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