1st hurricane of season may develop south of Mexico
By
Jessica Storm, AccuWeather Meteorologist
Updated Jun 25, 2021 2:43 PM EDT
The cone of uncertainty used in hurricane forecasts is a tool used by millions, but is it more confusing than helpful? Researchers are looking into how to make it easier to interpret accurately.
Just a few days after Tropical Storm Dolores made landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast, another tropical storm formed just to the southeast of where Dolores was first detected: Tropical Storm Enrique.
On Thursday, a tropical wave was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms across an extended area that covers several hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala, El Salvador and southern Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The 2021 East Pacific hurricane season has been close to normal so far in terms of activity level since it began on May 15, and now the fifth tropical system has formed on Friday, June 25, 2021.
Meteorologists anticipate Enrique to impact some of the same locations Dolores inundated with heavy rain.
Enrique's landfall is expected to be slightly farther southeast than where Dolores made landfall. This can occur as early as Saturday night, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller.
This graphic shows the storm tracks of the four named tropical systems in the East Pacific so far this season.
Atmospheric conditions are expected to be favorable for Enrique to strengthen.
"Waters were churned up a bit by Dolores, so they are not as warm as they were," said Miler. Still, waters can be warm enough and wind shear is light enough that this system can possibly ramp up to a hurricane prior to landfall.
Wind shear is the change in the strength or direction of wind with increasing altitude or over a horizontal area above the Earth's surface.
If this system does achieve hurricane status, it would be the first to reach that threshold in either the Atlantic or East Pacific basins in 2021.
This satellite clip, captured early Friday morning, June 25, shows the newly formed Tropical Storm Enrique off the coast of Mexico. (CIRA/RAMMB)
"When wind shear is high or increases relative to a storm's movement, it can cause the system to lean, like a poorly rooted tree," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski. This leaning effect can also restrict strengthening under certain circumstances.
With light wind shear in this situation, conditions are favorable for a tropical system to strengthen.
"Locally flooding rainfall and strong winds can impact southern Mexico," said Miller.
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Impacts can be especially difficult for communities still recovering from Dolores, though this storm may stay far enough off the coast that any rain or wind will only be a nuisance.
"There are some models suggesting the storm just spins itself out off the southwest coast of Mexico this weekend," said Miller. Either way, a "fountain of tropical moisture" will continue into early next week across southern Mexico, which will continue the flooding threat long after the system is gone.
AccuWeather tropical meteorologists are keeping a close eye on the Atlantic Basin as well for possible development this weekend into early next week.
An area in the corridor of the Atlantic Ocean between the Lesser Antilles and the African Coast will be monitored for tropical development as a new tropical wave emerges off the west coast of Africa and progresses westward over the next several days.
This tropical wave is expected to encounter moderate to severe wind shear as it moves west that will hinder any rapid development of the storm into a tropical depression or storm. As the energy moves west into the Lesser Antilles by late next week, residents may encounter enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
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News / Hurricane
1st hurricane of season may develop south of Mexico
By Jessica Storm, AccuWeather Meteorologist
Updated Jun 25, 2021 2:43 PM EDT
The cone of uncertainty used in hurricane forecasts is a tool used by millions, but is it more confusing than helpful? Researchers are looking into how to make it easier to interpret accurately.
Just a few days after Tropical Storm Dolores made landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast, another tropical storm formed just to the southeast of where Dolores was first detected: Tropical Storm Enrique.
On Thursday, a tropical wave was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms across an extended area that covers several hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala, El Salvador and southern Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The 2021 East Pacific hurricane season has been close to normal so far in terms of activity level since it began on May 15, and now the fifth tropical system has formed on Friday, June 25, 2021.
Meteorologists anticipate Enrique to impact some of the same locations Dolores inundated with heavy rain.
Enrique's landfall is expected to be slightly farther southeast than where Dolores made landfall. This can occur as early as Saturday night, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller.
This graphic shows the storm tracks of the four named tropical systems in the East Pacific so far this season.
Atmospheric conditions are expected to be favorable for Enrique to strengthen.
"Waters were churned up a bit by Dolores, so they are not as warm as they were," said Miler. Still, waters can be warm enough and wind shear is light enough that this system can possibly ramp up to a hurricane prior to landfall.
Wind shear is the change in the strength or direction of wind with increasing altitude or over a horizontal area above the Earth's surface.
If this system does achieve hurricane status, it would be the first to reach that threshold in either the Atlantic or East Pacific basins in 2021.
This satellite clip, captured early Friday morning, June 25, shows the newly formed Tropical Storm Enrique off the coast of Mexico. (CIRA/RAMMB)
"When wind shear is high or increases relative to a storm's movement, it can cause the system to lean, like a poorly rooted tree," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski. This leaning effect can also restrict strengthening under certain circumstances.
With light wind shear in this situation, conditions are favorable for a tropical system to strengthen.
"Locally flooding rainfall and strong winds can impact southern Mexico," said Miller.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Impacts can be especially difficult for communities still recovering from Dolores, though this storm may stay far enough off the coast that any rain or wind will only be a nuisance.
"There are some models suggesting the storm just spins itself out off the southwest coast of Mexico this weekend," said Miller. Either way, a "fountain of tropical moisture" will continue into early next week across southern Mexico, which will continue the flooding threat long after the system is gone.
AccuWeather tropical meteorologists are keeping a close eye on the Atlantic Basin as well for possible development this weekend into early next week.
An area in the corridor of the Atlantic Ocean between the Lesser Antilles and the African Coast will be monitored for tropical development as a new tropical wave emerges off the west coast of Africa and progresses westward over the next several days.
This tropical wave is expected to encounter moderate to severe wind shear as it moves west that will hinder any rapid development of the storm into a tropical depression or storm. As the energy moves west into the Lesser Antilles by late next week, residents may encounter enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity.
Related:
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo