Tropical Storm Vicente is a very small tropical cyclone off the southern coast of Mexico. Vicente over the next couple of days will be moving west into an environment favorable for the system to become better organized as convection fires near the center of circulation. However, interaction with Tropical Storm Willa, located to the west-northwest, and with land will probably limit just how strong Vicente becomes. Regardless of strength, heavy rain will spread over the coastal areas and mountains of Guerrero to Jalisco Monday into Tuesday night. Localized downpours may also persist along the coast of Oaxaca. Rainfall totals will average 4-8 inches with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches. This will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and higher-terrain mudslides.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Willa is moving to the west into an environment of low wind shear and over warm waters. This will allow further strengthening of the system. Willa is expected to become a hurricane later tomorrow and likely become a major hurricane by midweek. The storm, along with Tropical Storm Vicente, will contribute to flooding downpours in southwestern Mexico into early next week before threatening the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Nayarit with widespread flooding rain, damaging winds and storm surge flooding around Thursday of next week. Rainfall totals will average 4-8 inches with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches. This will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and higher terrain mudslides. This moisture could end up enhancing the development of more heavy, flooding rainfall for parts of Texas later next week.
The rest of the East Pacific remains relatively quiet as does the Central Pacific Basin. Additional new tropical development elsewhere across the East Pacific and across the Central Pacific is not expected through at least the middle of next week.
By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Carl Erickson
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 201720 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 20 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Vicente, located just off the coast of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Willa, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Willa are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Willa are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Berg
Vicente and Willa, which is expected to become a major hurricane, will combine to bring a one-two tropical punch to southwestern and western Mexico next week.
In the event of an impending natural disaster, those facing a direct threat will have to consider the options of evacuating to a safer location versus sheltering in place.
The long-range track of Sergio may be such that the hurricane boomerangs back toward the upper west coast of Mexico and delivers more drenching rain in the wake of Rosa.
Indonesia continues to deal with the aftermath of a tragic earthquake and following tsunami that killed more than 1,700 while flooding overtook parts of the southwestern and midwestern United States.
It is only when human life and property are threatened or negatively impacted by nature do we view these natural events as natural hazards and natural disasters.
Rosa will spread the risk of life-threatening flash flooding over the interior Southwest, while a non-tropical storm spreads soaking rain into much of California this week.
Rosa will continue to batter far northwestern Mexico with gusty winds and flooding rainfall into Monday night.
As Rosa’s downpours sweep northeastward, flash flooding and mudslides will pose a series threat to lives and property in the southwestern United States early this week.