We are watching several areas for potential development across the East Pacific basin at this time.
The first is a tropical wave around 1,400 miles to the southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Satellite imagery shows a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms associated with this tropical wave as it continues to track westward. This feature will remain well away from any land masses over the next several days.
The second area is low pressure that will likely develop well southwest of Mexico this weekend. The low will form in a zone of low shear and warm ocean waters, so further development and organization of this feature are possible by the end of the weekend or early next week.
Another low pressure area should develop this weekend off the coast of Central America located to the west of El Salvador and Nicaragua. This feature may develop early next week as it moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Central America.
In the Central Pacific basin, we are also monitoring a feature for potential development. Satellite imagery shows an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure currently located around 950 miles to the southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Further development and organization of this low is possible over the next few days as it tracks off to the west.
By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 191735 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 19 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located about 1400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves quickly westward during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. An area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles southwest of Mexico is associated with a westward-moving tropical wave. A low pressure area is expected to form this weekend from this wave and gradual development is possible early next week while it continues westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Another area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear conducive for some development of this system thereafter while it moves west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
Carlotta will elevate the risk of flooding in southern Mexico into Sunday night.
Tropical Rainstorm Bud will deliver enough rain to temporarily ease wildfire concerns but may also cause isolated flash flooding and mudslides in parts of the southwestern United States this weekend.
Although Tropical Storm Bud will continue to weaken, it will threaten western Mexico with flooding rainfall this week.
On the heels of Aletta, the first hurricane of the East Pacific hurricane season, Hurricane Bud has developed and will threaten western Mexico with flooding rainfall this week.
The first tropical system of the year has already formed in the East Pacific ocean and an active season is predicted.
Tropical Depression Ramon will enhance the risk of flooding, mudslides and rough surf across the southern Mexico coast through Thursday.
Some normally arid areas of the southwestern United States will experience flooding rainfall through late this week.