JB On Humberto, Strengthening Reasons, Buoy
I wanted to take some time today to give credit where credit is due for AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi's [BIO] (PRO) advanced forecast of Humberto that challenges media assertions that the storm and its strength was "unexpected" or "a surprise" and to give some reasons for the sudden strengthening, which The NHC [JessePedia] is quoted in an AP Article saying "No tropical cyclone in the historical record has ever reached this intensity at a faster rate near landfall" (previously reported in my "Holy Hurricane Humberto!" blog entry).
Google Hurricane Tracker (PREMIUM | PRO)
The fact is, Joe talked about this storm a week in advance, and predicted it would bring hurricane conditions 12 hours in advance, hinting at that more than a day before the storm hit. Anyone who listened to Joe Bastardi was prepared for this storm. And this doesn't even cover what he said on our business client site, Energy Pro, or in emails to other business clients, which can sometimes precede his public predictions. What I mean by this is, you can bet on Joe, and I'm not JoeKing!
DISCLAIMERS:
I am doing this on my own and without anyone's permission here, and without consultation from JB because I believe it is important to get this unbiased information out to the public for the benefit of those who don't read JB's blog daily. I understand that we may be working on a separate Press Release detailing Joe's predictions, and since I'm working without the benefit of that research, I apologize in advance if anything said here disagrees with our official release, and anything I say in this entry cannot be considered the official opinion of AccuWeather, Inc.
Due to lack of time, I haven't linked in proof of the statements below; they were summarized from JB's column archive (which is available to Professional subscribers or those people on a 30-day free trial of the service) and the NHC Humberto archive. If you believe any of these statements are incorrect based on what you read on those sites, please let me know.
This blog entry does not examine what was said publicly on the AccuWeather.com website, which I suspect was sub-par, and I publicly apologized on my blog Thursday for not paying more attention to what Joe was saying.
A LONG-STANDING WARNING ON RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORMS:
Joe has always warned that rapidly deepening storms could be our worst nightmare, because he believes that models won't catch it, nor will conventional forecasting. He thinks that a storm could theoretically strengthen 40 mb in 20 hours (Humberto was 15 mb in 12 hours). Joe quoted other rapidly strengthening hurricanes as: Celia (1970), Cleo (1964), Jerry (1989), Unnamed (1943), Veterans Day Storm (1968). He praised Shell Oil for evacuating their people during relatively-weak Tropical Storm Erin. You can view these tracks and stats on our Google Hurricane Tracker (PREMIUM | PRO).
ISSUES WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER:
Joe makes it clear that he respects the Hurricane Forecasters at The NHC but was disappointed that the recon didn't go in earlier; he believes the winds to support a Tropical Storm were happening up to 12 hours earlier than it was declared. In fact the NHC stated that Tropical Storm force winds had been reported by a ship at 11 AM Wednesday, but they did not declare a Tropical Storm (see below).
PLAY BY PLAY, JB AND THE NHC:
At 11:15 AM Thursday, a full week before Humberto hit, Joe said in his blog that he was "looking closely at the threat of in close western and central Gulf development this weekend".
At 1 PM Saturday, Joe said that there was an "intriguing threat" in the Gulf.
At 11 PM Saturday, Joe said that the Gulf of Mexico would be "a focus of concern during the next few days."
At 8 PM Sunday, Joe predicted that "The Gulf of Mexico system is something that, although not alive, and not obvious, to me has the potential to be a problem in the western Gulf at midweek"
At 5 PM Monday, Joe said that "of interest will be goings on later this week in the Gulf."
At 8:45 AM Wednesday, the NHC announced the presence of a disturbance in the Gulf that could become a tropical depression later that day.
At 10 AM Wednesday, he predicted that a hurricane could form and hit the upper Texas coast and that Houston east should prepare for more than 6 inches of rain and at least Tropical Storm conditions."
At 11 AM Wednesday, the NHC declared Tropical Depression #8 in the Gulf. They stated* that 38 knot (mph) winds were reported from a ship and the system "might already be a tropical storm" but "those winds are judged as unrepresentative of the cyclone scale." A recon plane was sent in.
At 1 PM Wednesday, the recon plane had been sent back for unknown mechanical or logistical problems reasons, but the NHC fortunately upgraded TD #8 to Tropical Storm Humberto anyway.
At 4 PM Wednesday, Joe said he was concerned about the development of a tropical-storm force system in the Texas coastal waters, that the system might be "playing possum" and would "come roaring back to life" soon. He also stated "I wish a recon was in there."
At Noon Wednesday, Joe warned that Humberto could have a "surprise" for us.
At 4 PM Wednesday, the recon (finally) happened and found 1001mb. Joe predicted that the storm would undergo significant strengthening and the pressure at landfall would be "as low as" 990 mb, causing hurricane conditions.
At 5 PM Wednesday, the NHC stated* that "the expectation is that Humberto will not have enough time over water to reach Hurricane strength."
At 8 PM Wednesday, Joe stated again the 990 prediction and said he felt the eyewall was tightening (on radar/satellite) and that the unusually temperatures inside the eye indicated that winds would increase rapidly as pressure fell. Like a skater bringing in their arms, an eyewall tightening indicates that the storm will spin faster.
At 11 PM Wednesday, the NHC stated* that Humberto was strengthening and "winds could be approaching hurricane force when it reaches the coast".
At 1 AM Thursday, the recon reported 70 knots with 992 mb pressure and Joe said he believed it was a hurricane and predicted that "hurricane conditions may be on the coast for several hours and in the area hit directly by Rita."
At 1:15 AM Thursday, the NHC upgraded Humberto to a Hurricane and said it was near landfall. Joe praised them for the statement.
At 3:10 AM Thursday, the NHC reported that Hurricane Humberto had made landfall with 85 MPH winds and a pressure of 986 mb.
*The NHC made these comments not in the Public Advisories that are widely distributed for the storms, but In non-public-facing "forecast discussion" statements.
AS JOE SAYS...
Thanks for reading, and ciao for now.
SIR MIX-WITH-AND-CHANGE-TO-SNOW-ALOT
AND NOW FOR SOMETHING (NOT) COMPLETELY DIFFERENT:
And as a final note on Humberto, I questioned the wind gust from Buoy #42043 in my Thursday blog entry because it was so much higher (82 mph) than the sustained wind (26 mph). Not that it would indicate that Humberto was any weaker, because nearby stations had similar wind gusts with more reasonable sustained winds.
Blog reader "Boatersdelite" suggested the possibility of the waves causing problems with the buoys not "seeing" the winds properly. Buoy #42043 is part of the TABS project. According to their instrumentation PDF about "Buoy #B" on the Texas A&M site, the anemometer is at 5 meters up (or about 15 feet high). I tried to download additional data via the TABS site but I couldn't make anything out of it (I was hoping they would have observations in-between those on the NDBC site, but they didn't). The waves from nearby waves from nearby 42035 were over 12 feet high, so it's conceivable that they could have blocked the wind sensor.
That said, waves blocking the wind could be a huge problem in major hurricanes where I've seen waves approach 50 feet. Surely buoy manufacturers must have some way to mitigate that problem. I tried emailing the TABS folks, but got a system error on their website, so I am unable to investigate further.
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