Southwest Monsoon Update

The long-awaited arrival of the Southwest Monsoon to northwestern India is expected in less than a week.

Following an early surge northward along the west coast of India in June, the monsoon stalled and actually receded southward for a time.

In the past two weeks, the monsoon has advanced northward again, reaching areas that previously saw rainfall almost a month ago during the first advancement.

In a normal year, the monsoon reaches the northwest states of Gujarat and Rajasthan between June 1 and July 1. This year, however, the monsoon has yet to arrive and it will be at least July 15 before it does so.

As a result, areas will be 15-40 days behind schedule.

Even if normal rainfall occurs during the second half of July through early September, rainfall deficits will be great across parts of northwestern India leading to a higher risk of long term drought in the region.

Typically, the monsoon withdraws from northwest India during the first half of September, and that is expected again this year making a shorter than normal monsoon season due to the late arrival.