The long-awaited arrival of the Southwest Monsoon to northwestern India is expected in less than a week.
Following an early surge northward along the west coast of India in June, the monsoon stalled and actually receded southward for a time.
In the past two weeks, the monsoon has advanced northward again, reaching areas that previously saw rainfall almost a month ago during the first advancement.
Graphic showing the advancement of the monsoon this year and normal averages. Parts of northwestern India are more than a month behind schedule. Courtesy of India Meteorological Department.
In a normal year, the monsoon reaches the northwest states of Gujarat and Rajasthan between June 1 and July 1. This year, however, the monsoon has yet to arrive and it will be at least July 15 before it does so.
As a result, areas will be 15-40 days behind schedule.
Even if normal rainfall occurs during the second half of July through early September, rainfall deficits will be great across parts of northwestern India leading to a higher risk of long term drought in the region.
Typically, the monsoon withdraws from northwest India during the first half of September, and that is expected again this year making a shorter than normal monsoon season due to the late arrival.
The United Kingdom could experience impacts from at least one of the current tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean.
A recent flurry of tropical activity in the West Pacific has resulted in three landfalling tropical cyclones in Japan since Aug. 15.
Japan will be under the threat of three tropical cyclones over the next several days as an explosion of development has taken place in the West Pacific.
Tropical Storm Mirinae and Typhoon Nida have impacted the West Pacific in the past week and several more cyclones are possible in the next 10 days.
Tropical Storm Mirinae will impact China and Vietnam while another threat could impact the Philippines by this weekend.
Significant rainfall in the past week has helped produce near- to above-normal rainfall across much of India for the season.