The low-level circulation that once was Ernesto has dissipated over western Mexico. However, the upper-level feature, showers and thunderstorms have survived the trip west. In fact, the satellite picture shows an impressive amount of cold top showers and thunderstorms along and off the west coast of Mexico. The patch of clouds near 20N120W is weakening Tropical Storm Gilma.
Most of the global mountains takes the upper-level system moving off the Mexico coast and gradually develops and intensifies a surface low pressure system that could easily become a tropical storm before the weekend is through.
If this happens, and there seems to be a good chance, it will have the new name, Hector.
While models take it west into early next week, a developing trough off the West Coast could turn this system north or even northeast. The GFS has this low directly affecting the southern and central Baja Thursday or so next week. The European has it somewhat farther west but not too far to the west of the southern Baja by the same time period.
The first day of the Eastern Pacific Tropical Season gives us the first tropical storm of the season.
this could be shaping up to be not only an early fire season but a bad one too
Coachella Music Festival temperatures are likely to be in the middle to upper 90s this weekend.
It always seems that hot weather arrives just in time for the festival and looking at the history that is mostly true.
If headed into or through any mountain areas, know ahead of time that snow levels are likely to drop to 2,000 feet in the Washington Cascades
It seems highly likely that there will be a period of very windy weather from Sunday afternoon through Monday