The low-level circulation that once was Ernesto has dissipated over western Mexico. However, the upper-level feature, showers and thunderstorms have survived the trip west. In fact, the satellite picture shows an impressive amount of cold top showers and thunderstorms along and off the west coast of Mexico. The patch of clouds near 20N120W is weakening Tropical Storm Gilma.
Most of the global mountains takes the upper-level system moving off the Mexico coast and gradually develops and intensifies a surface low pressure system that could easily become a tropical storm before the weekend is through.
If this happens, and there seems to be a good chance, it will have the new name, Hector.
While models take it west into early next week, a developing trough off the West Coast could turn this system north or even northeast. The GFS has this low directly affecting the southern and central Baja Thursday or so next week. The European has it somewhat farther west but not too far to the west of the southern Baja by the same time period.
A prolonged rain-free pattern is setting in.
By this time in 1998 there was twice as much rain that had occurred to date compared to 2015-2016.
Could an unusual El Nino precipitation pattern be as simple as looking at the state of water temperatures?
One thing that I find interesting is that the pattern since fall has not been your typical El Nino storm pattern.
There are signs of a possible stormier pattern beginning the week of Jan. 18.
The cumulative effect of the series of storms will mean flooding, mudslides and debris flows are going to be a problems for much of the week