The low-level circulation that once was Ernesto has dissipated over western Mexico. However, the upper-level feature, showers and thunderstorms have survived the trip west. In fact, the satellite picture shows an impressive amount of cold top showers and thunderstorms along and off the west coast of Mexico. The patch of clouds near 20N120W is weakening Tropical Storm Gilma.
Most of the global mountains takes the upper-level system moving off the Mexico coast and gradually develops and intensifies a surface low pressure system that could easily become a tropical storm before the weekend is through.
If this happens, and there seems to be a good chance, it will have the new name, Hector.
While models take it west into early next week, a developing trough off the West Coast could turn this system north or even northeast. The GFS has this low directly affecting the southern and central Baja Thursday or so next week. The European has it somewhat farther west but not too far to the west of the southern Baja by the same time period.
A powerful second punch is offshore right now and comes inland during the early morning hours. It will bring moderate to heavy rain for the Friday morning rush.
The main storm will move in off the Pacific Thursday and Friday.
Last year by the end of April the drought in California was very bad. Since then it has become even worse.
A big change is coming to California Sunday into next week.
Populated areas are going to have problems. Expect local wind damage in addition to travel problems for high-profile vehicles.
As far as April storms go this will be a decent one