The low-level circulation that once was Ernesto has dissipated over western Mexico. However, the upper-level feature, showers and thunderstorms have survived the trip west. In fact, the satellite picture shows an impressive amount of cold top showers and thunderstorms along and off the west coast of Mexico. The patch of clouds near 20N120W is weakening Tropical Storm Gilma.
Most of the global mountains takes the upper-level system moving off the Mexico coast and gradually develops and intensifies a surface low pressure system that could easily become a tropical storm before the weekend is through.
If this happens, and there seems to be a good chance, it will have the new name, Hector.
While models take it west into early next week, a developing trough off the West Coast could turn this system north or even northeast. The GFS has this low directly affecting the southern and central Baja Thursday or so next week. The European has it somewhat farther west but not too far to the west of the southern Baja by the same time period.
According to all long-range models, the warmest area in North America compared to average will be over the Northwest.
No matter where you are, the sunshine gets more intense and causes quicker burning
A series of upper level lows moving off the Pacific brings, cool, cloudy, unsettled weather through Monday.
We (Accuweather.com) saw a way that this winter could end up being a bust not a boon even during a Super El Nino.
If you are in California, enjoy the warm sunshine now because next week will certainly bring a change.
It is increasingly likely that this will not be a banner year for well above-normal snowfall.