The only story in the West of big importance weather-wise is the impending chance of rain next week over much of California. An early season closed low will bring the chance of some rain for much of central and Southern California for at least several days next week along with temperatures well-below normal.
The ideas remain the same from my two previous posts. I am not going to rehash what I have been saying. I do want to give you a visual look at each day Monday through Thursday next week to show you the stability of the REX block. Because we cannot redistribute the European model data in graphical form, and the fact that there really is no important large-scale differences between it and the GFS, I give you the 500 mb graphics from the 12Z run of the GFS for each day.
As with any closed low where precipitation occurs, it is very hard to forecast even a day or two out. It is obvious that there is a good chance for scattered showers, and even a thundershower, somewhere around this closed low each day. It is also likely in this pattern that temperatures will stay well below normal for some time to come.
A prolonged rain-free pattern is setting in.
By this time in 1998 there was twice as much rain that had occurred to date compared to 2015-2016.
Could an unusual El Nino precipitation pattern be as simple as looking at the state of water temperatures?
One thing that I find interesting is that the pattern since fall has not been your typical El Nino storm pattern.
There are signs of a possible stormier pattern beginning the week of Jan. 18.
The cumulative effect of the series of storms will mean flooding, mudslides and debris flows are going to be a problems for much of the week