Ivo's Two Sides, Benefial but Floding Rains Southwest

Tropical Storm Ivo’s moisture is likely to have big impacts on portions of the Southwest from late Saturday night through Monday.

Ivo became a tropical storm during Friday morning and while the circulation at the time was not overly impressive the amount of showers and thunderstorms was. Since this morning some additional organization has taken place

The infared satellite picture above shows plenty of cold tops (bright colors) associated with Ivo.

The steering currents will keep Ivo moving on a north-northwest course throug Sunday. It has through the day Saturday to get more organized before starting to move over cooler waters.

The center is likely to move just west of the Baja Peninsula. But the worry is not from the low level center it is from the copious moisture it is likely to bring north. That moisture will break away from the low level center Sunday and Monday streaming into the Arizona and Southeast California late Saturday night and Sunday and continuing north into southern and eastern Nevada and much of Utah Sunday night and Monday.

The corridor of the heaviest rain looks to be in the western half of Arizona (including Phoenix to Flagstaff) to just west of the Colorado River then north into the Las Vegas area and Utah.

There will likely be some shower and thunderstorm activity in the rest of Arizona and into western Colorado. It can also shower and thunderstorm farther west in southern California to include parts of San Diego county to the Inland Empire, Palm Springs area and the central and eastern Upper Deserts. The farther east in that last area the better chance of seeing something.

Here is what the GFS has for total precipitation through the daylight hours on Monday. It has been very consistent for days predicting the area of heaviest rain.

The entire Southwest has been in a long term drought and rain is certainly welcomed. It will help to decrease the fire threat at least for awhile. Unfortunately there probably will be too much of a good thing too quick. There is the risk of major flash flooding that could threaten life and property. This is especially true in the corridor of the heaviest rain outlined above. Remember, water can rise rapidly in some of the usually dry washes and can flow very fast. It does not take a lot of water to sweep a car or truck away. Please listen to warnings if they are issued for your area.