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    Western US weather expert

    Huge Changes in the Models in 24 Hours

    4/04/2013, 2:39:40 AM

    I was planning on posting on my blog yesterday how a cold storm looked like it was going to dig south through California and into the Southwest early next week, but technical problems prevented this posting. It seems to me the weather gods were smiling on me.

    Yesterday, the models, while disagreeing somewhat, had the general same idea with the European the coldest and wettest of the two for California and Arizona.

    Here is what the 12Z Tuesday European had for the 500 mb pattern for 12Z Monday, April 8.

    Here is what yesterday’s GFS had for the same time period.

    Then the 00Z Wednesday European came in. It was a tremendous departure from just 12 hours earlier, as it no longer formed a closed low but took an upper-level disturbance far to the east. The 00Z GFS came in and, while not as far east as the European, it was also weaker than the previous run. Ah, but the fun was not over. The 06Z GFS came in and it now had a big change and looked like the 12Z Tuesday European, as seen below.

    So when I came into the office this morning, I was faced with two totally different-looking models than 24 hours ago and total disagreement.

    Hoping the 12Z Wednesday runs of the models would shed at least a glimmer of light on the pattern, I waited. The GFS came in and looked much more like the 00Z Wednesday European. Check\ mark one for better agreement. Then the 12Z Wednesday European came in and it agreed with the 00Z Wednesday run. Checkmark two for agreement. You got all that straight? Need a scorecard?

    Current GFS:

    Current European:

    So it no longer looks like any rain and snow will fall in California from this pattern, a shame as it is needed so much. That is, of course, if these models stay the same tonight which may not be a guarantee.

    The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com


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    Western US weather expert