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Cold Low and Showers Still on Track for California

October 04, 2012; 12:09 PM

A quick update from my post yesterday. If you missed it, click here to view the complete post.

My thoughts have changed little, and the models continue to be pretty darn close through Tuesday. Expect well-below-normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday with a shower, even a thundershower, chance spreading east and south those two days. A deep marine layer in the Los Angeles and San Diego area Tuesday could mean a little light rain and drizzle in the morning hours, then an afternoon shower.

After Tuesday, the models part ways again with the European moving the center of the low east into the southern Nevada area with a trough hanging back over Southern California. However, the GFS still has a well-developed, closed low near Pt. Conception Wednesday and a little farther south over the Los Angeles Basin on Thursday. Obviously one model would have a better chance for a shower or thundershower than the other. As I explained yesterday, we are in a REX block and things evolve very slowly in these blocks. I am leaning more toward the slower GFS because of that.

No matter which model, there is at least two days for the chance of rain and temperatures are going to well below normal.

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Ken Clark
Ken Clark's Western U.S. weather blog tackles daily weather events with commentary from one of the most experienced and trusted Western U.S. weather experts.