A quick update from my post yesterday. If you missed it, click here to view the complete post.
My thoughts have changed little, and the models continue to be pretty darn close through Tuesday. Expect well-below-normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday with a shower, even a thundershower, chance spreading east and south those two days. A deep marine layer in the Los Angeles and San Diego area Tuesday could mean a little light rain and drizzle in the morning hours, then an afternoon shower.
After Tuesday, the models part ways again with the European moving the center of the low east into the southern Nevada area with a trough hanging back over Southern California. However, the GFS still has a well-developed, closed low near Pt. Conception Wednesday and a little farther south over the Los Angeles Basin on Thursday. Obviously one model would have a better chance for a shower or thundershower than the other. As I explained yesterday, we are in a REX block and things evolve very slowly in these blocks. I am leaning more toward the slower GFS because of that.
No matter which model, there is at least two days for the chance of rain and temperatures are going to well below normal.
There will be more showers and thunderstorms are likely that can produce very heavy downpours in Arizona.
This rain caused problems with flash flooding producing some damage and there were a few swift water rescues.
Computer models are insistent that a rather strong piece of energy will move through California Tuesday, bringing more widespread rainfall.
This will make for a very hazardous period for firefighters into early Friday night.
With such high heat and low humidity, the fire danger will be as high as it can get.
For the second time this week, parts of northern California will get some rain.