Weekly Clues into Early November
I have no real changes to what I wrote yesterday in regards to the impacts to coastal BC and Alaska from what was Oho. This will be a quick hitting storm, but intense, especially for Haida Gwaii early Friday.
Other thoughts before the long range interpretation......
1. The current EL Nino will likely rank in the top two strongest on record going back to the mid-20th century.
2. A fairly zonal, west to east flow across Canada over the next 5 days will keep most of the cold air well to the north. Systems and fronts will move quickly.
3. There are indications that the jet may buckle into the eastern Prairies, Ontario and Quebec between the 15th-17th, which would bring a quick shot of chilly to cold air into those provinces. It's still early, but this is an early heads up for a potential widespread frost/freeze across southern Ontario around the 16th or 17th.
4. I will continue to work on the winter forecast for Canada this week. One of the forecast model ensembles that we look at every month continues to forecast widespread above-normal temperatures for much of Canada during the upcoming winter. Obviously, the strong EL Nino has a lot to do with that. We also have to keep in mind that some of these seasonal models have too much of a warm bias during El Nino events. Current observational data, model output, ocean data and analogs will all be taken into account as we finalize the winter forecast that will be coming out in a couple weeks.
5. Oh, also forgot to mention that the latest seasonable forecast model ensemble has the El Nino peaking in December with an average ONI value of 2.4.
Weekly long range ECMWF/CFSv2 forecast model interpretation
Confidence is lower than usual as there is a lack of consensus among some of the weekly models and also with what the MJO would indicate, especially at the end of the month and early November. Transition months such as October can especially play fits with the forecast models.
Week of Nov 2-8 below
