A major storm system taking shape over the southern U.S. and tracking up toward the Great Lakes later in the weekend will bring a wide change of precipitation types to eastern and parts of Atlantic Canada.
Keep in mind, there is still high uncertainty with the track and strength of this storm, and that will have major implications on where the worst of the snow and ice will set up. I will hopefully narrow these areas down for you over the next couple of days.
For what it is worth, latest computer models have trended farther north and west with the track of the storm for Saturday night/Sunday, which means warmer air is able to spread farther north into eastern Canada, resulting in the heaviest snow (over 15 cm) shifting north of a Barrie, Ontario, to Montreal, Quebec, to Fredericton, N.B., line. A narrow, but potentially heavy band of ice could set up from near the GTA to just south of Ottawa and Montreal and into northern New England.
After a brief period of snow or mixed precipitation, it appears that extreme southern Ontario could be in for a soaking rain later Saturday night into early Sunday with the potential for some flooding.
Again, the above scenario is based on the latest model trends of the GFS and ECMWF. I am not sold on these solutions as of yet since the energy that will trigger the storm is still just off the West Coast of the U.S.
SW BC storm
My ideas about the snow event coming for Vancouver and the Fraser Valley remain unchanged from yesterday's blog. It looks like snow spreads in very late Thursday night and continues through Friday morning before gradually transitioning to rain from west to east during the afternoon and early evening.
Here is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF weekly long range forecast model through the 3rd week of August.
Damaging thunderstorms and possible tornadoes for the western Prairie region Thursday.
The western heat wave finally winding down, but some hot weather headed toward the eastern Prairies and northwestern Ontario by early next week.
Widespread record heat for BC
Pattern of extremes into next week and a look at August.
One of the worst wildfire seasons in recent time across the Northwest Territories is causing a massive plume of smoke....