Updated Computer Model Forecast Through February 2014

The updated ECMWF model seasonal forecast was released last night. This model forecasts temperature and precipitation anomalies by the month. I will interpret what it shows for the months of October through February.

Keep in mind, this is not the AccuWeather.com forecast. We will be releasing our own winter outlooks in October. Based on the projected upper-level jet stream patterns forecasted by the ECMWF I believe the model is too warm with its temperature forecast for central Canada during some of the winter months. This includes the southern Prairies and into northwestern Ontario.

Also, the ECMWF has trended a little more in the direction of a weak El Nino possibly forming by the second half of winter and its precipitation/temperature forecast seems to reflect that in some ways.