The updated ECMWF model seasonal forecast was released last night. This model forecasts temperature and precipitation anomalies by the month. I will interpret what it shows for the months of October through February.
Keep in mind, this is not the AccuWeather.com forecast. We will be releasing our own winter outlooks in October.
Based on the projected upper-level jet stream patterns forecasted by the ECMWF I believe the model is too warm with its temperature forecast for central Canada during some of the winter months. This includes the southern Prairies and into northwestern Ontario.
Also, the ECMWF has trended a little more in the direction of a weak El Nino possibly forming by the second half of winter and its precipitation/temperature forecast seems to reflect that in some ways.
My personal thoughts on the current and future weather pattern.
Signals point toward a mild spring for a large portion of Canada.
Storm snowfall forecast map for Monday/Tuesday and comments.
Latest weekly clues to the long range into early March.
Updated storm snowfall forecast map for Atlantic Canada for the storm today into early Saturday.
Storm snowfall forecast map for Friday into early Saturday over Atlantic Canada.