A storm currently gaining strength over northern Missouri will reach the Upper Peninsula of Michigan by early Friday morning with a central barometric pressure dipping below 976 mb.
The combination of strong gales and heavy snow will result in blizzard conditions in the Thunder Bay region of Ontario later tonight through Friday morning with the potential for over 30 cm of snow, massive drifts and whiteouts.
Snapshot of the storm situation valid just after midnight tonight.
The western/northwestern edge of the storm will get into extreme southeastern Manitoba tonight and Friday with a few centimeters of snow and blowing snow in the Winnipeg area.
Farther east, a mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain will be the main issue along with a period of strong winds.
Snow will spread up through the rest of southern/eastern Ontario the rest of today into this evening then change over to freezing rain or rain.
Roads will be slick through this evening north and west of Toronto with snow followed by sleet and freezing rain before temperatures get above the freezing mark late tonight.
Right in Toronto and Hamilton, the precipitation will likely start as some snow or sleet but should quickly transition over to rain later this evening with the potential for some thunder.
Places in the region from north of Barrie through Huntsville up to North Bay and Pembroke could see an extended period of sleet and ice after the initial snow tonight into tomorrow morning.
South to southeast winds will get strong (gusts 80 km/h or so) tonight from the Windsor area to Kingston as a powerful jet stream moves overhead. Any thunderstorm, especially over extreme southwestern Ontario could transfer damaging winds to the surface. Less friction over frozen Lake Erie doesn't help the situation either.
Rainfall totals across southwestern Ontario through tonight will average 20-40 mm with the potential for street flooding due to runoff.
Behind the front on Friday, the southwest winds will be very strong, especially downwind of Lake Erie, Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.
In the Montreal area, I expect a short period of snow later tonight (5 cm or less) followed by sleet and freezing rain before dawn and through mid-late morning on Friday before it becomes plain rain.
Snow will eventually spread into New Brunswick Friday afternoon before changing to sleet and freezing rain during the evening and eventually rain late at night in the extreme south.
Snow potential for southern British Columbia later this weekend
A weak, Pacific storm system will track southeastward toward Washington state on Saturday while a supply of cold air persists across the region.
This combination could produce a swath of accumulating snow from Vancouver Island through the Fraser Valley and points southeast and east Saturday night through Sunday.
At this point, any accumulations in the Vancouver area should be less than 5 cm. I will keep you posted as we get closer to the event.
Arctic blast still on target for the eastern Prairies, Ontario, Quebec and eventually New Brunswick next week
The worst of the cold will be the middle and end of next week with temperatures averaging 11-15 degrees C below normal from Manitoba to Ontario and western Quebec. GFS ensemble model predicted temperature anomalies in F for Thursday next week.
From what I see, the pattern still argues for possible coastal storms next week and perhaps the following week which could lead to significant snowfall from New England into Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
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Dry and hotter pattern in store for southern B.C. into next week, while the east turns cooler and more unsettled.
Potential for a significant storm later Sunday into Monday from Ontario to Quebec with heavy rain, severe thunderstorms, wind and snow.
Late-season snow for the western Prairies later this week and a look at the weekly long range pattern.