As I said earlier, based on current observations and the latest computer ensemble ENSO forecasts, it appears that the El Nino this fall and winter will be a weak one at best.
This is certainly not etched in stone as things can change between now and November, but this is our best forecast for El Nino right now. The strength and position of an El Nino is quite important to the forecaster.
Of course, the El Nino is not the only thing we factor into the winter forecast. We look at analogs, model and observational data must factor in many other natural oscillations. Some of other critical oscillations such as the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and the AO (Arctic Oscillation) are nearly impossible to predict this far out and can fluctuate from one phase to another during weeks time.
Below are the composite temperature and precipitation anomaly impacts from a typical weak El Nino. These maps average out the weak El Nino winters of 1963-64, 1969-70, 1976-77, 1977-78 and 1987-88. Courtesy of Environment Canada. **Keep in mind, other shorter term oscillations (such as the AO, NAO and PNA) can mask the potential effects of an El Nino or La Nina.
You can follow me through the winter on my twitter @BrettAWX. I will be doing more videos on AccuWeather.com once again as winter approaches.
An interpretation of the latest ECMWF weekly long-range forecast output...
Clipper-like storm system will bring light snow to eastern Canada into tonight followed by another round of locally heavy lake-effect snow.
More about the lake-effect snow and upcoming weather pattern.
Arctic invasion will lead to a widespread, major lake-effect snowfall.
Light to moderate snowfall from the storm then an outbreak of heavy lake-effect snow in parts of Ontario as very cold air and strong winds inundate the region Monday night into Wednesday.
Latest forecast model data and teleconnections support the idea that the widespread cold pattern will gradually fade way during the last week of the month.