Sunday Evening Update

Working my usual Sunday radio shift this afternoon/early evening and just wanted to relay some thoughts.......

This will likely be the stormiest week of the winter for BC as several storm systems bring significant moisture to the region through the week......

1. Warm front approaching from the southwest tonight will spread precipitation into southwestern BC. Should be cold enough in the Fraser Valley for a small accumulation of snow late tonight into mid-morning Monday (2-4 cm on average) before it changes to rain. Allow extra time for travel Monday morning into the Vancouver area.

2. A series of moist, Pacific systems will bring significant snow to ski county in western Canada between Monday and Wednesday with the potential for over 60 cm along the Coastal Mountains and easily over 30 cm in the Rockies of southeastern BC.

3. One of those Pacific storms will dive into the southern Prairies Tuesday night and will likely bring a narrow swath of moderate to heavy snow from southern Saskatchewan to extreme southern Manitoba Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Looks like a general 8-15 cm type event.

4. Moist, southern-branch storm system will likely form along the U.S. East coast midweek and get drawn northward. This storm has the potential to bring heavy snow and wind to New Brunswick and possibly northern Nova Scotia and PEI late Thursday and into early Friday. Storm track may be too close to the coast and lead to a change to rain and strong winds farther south/east.

5. Potential for another shot of very cold air in the Prairies around Thursday which then spreads into eastern Canada next weekend. However, once that air mass moves out temperatures across much of southern Canada may get back to normal or above the following week.

6. Latest ECMWF seasonal forecast model just came out yesterday and it is forecasting a colder than normal spring for the Prairies. The model also indicates a return to drier conditions along the West Coast in March, while wetter (rain or snow) conditions are predicted from southern Ontario into Atlantic Canada.

I will issue the AccuWeather Canada Spring outlook at the end of this month.

7. The ECMWF is still insisting that an El Nino forms during the upcoming summer and persists through the end of the year. Still not buying into that idea as of yet, but we'll see. Even if El Nino does return this summer there is usually a 3-4 month lag time until we see any impacts in the U.S. or southern Canada. The greatest impacts from El Nino are typically seen during the winter months.

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