The below map shows our latest thinking for the upcoming snow event for southern Ontario, extreme southern Quebec and over into the Maritimes Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.
The graphic below shows the general breakdown of the upcoming storm with start time.
--Latest computer models have trended a little farther to the south with this particular storm as the upper level energy from the southern branch of the jet stream does not truly phase with the northern branch.
--The best chance of over 12 cm of snow in Ontario will be right along the north shore of Lake Erie and into the Niagara region. I am leaning more toward the 8 cm around the GTA with the snow starting just after midnight Tuesday night and tapering off Wednesday afternoon.
--Both Ottawa and Montreal will be on the northern fringe of this storm with light snowfall on Wednesday. This will likely be a near miss for Quebec City.
--The heavier snowfall will likely spread into Nova Scotia Wednesday afternoon/eve with lighter snow over southern New Brunswick and PEI. We may have to take amounts up in Nova Scotia as I suspect the coastal storm will intensify more than what the models indicate.
Cold air in the West
An Arctic high will drop into northwestern Alberta Tuesday with very cold air spreading south and southwest through western Canada.
This will be the coldest air mass in nearly two months for southwestern BC.
The GFS model forecasts for low temperatures (degrees C.) at 2 meters above the surface early Wednesday/Thursday morning are shown below.
Late weekend storm potential
Yet another southern branch storm will likely turn up the eastern seaboard later this weekend. Still very early, but there is the potential for accumulating snow as far north as southern Ontario and extreme southern Quebec. However, this storm will likely track more toward the coast as a cold high will be in the way to the north. The greatest potential for a major snowstorm with wind looks to be the Maritimes starting Sunday night and into Monday.
After that storm it looks like things will settle down for a while and there are some signs of a widespread warm-up across southern Canada starting around the 13th. However, I think winter will have more cards up it's sleeve for the end of Feb and into March.
Keep the pools open! Warmth to prevail in the East for the next few weeks.
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