New Update on the Long Range Through April
This is my latest interpretation of the European model (ECMWF) weekly long-range forecast output for North America.
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Blocking pattern...when will it end?
The persistent blocking pattern across the far north (-Arctic Oscillation/-North Atlantic Oscillation) is predicted to weaken as we go into the first half of April, but it will be a slow process.
The CPC ensemble forecast (red line) for the Arctic Oscillation (AO) below continues to show a trend toward neutral by the middle of the month, though there is still some uncertainty.
You can also look back and see how low (in the negative) the AO (black line) was from late February through March. The AO was about as low as it ever gets back on March 19 and 20.
For a nice, brief explanation of the different phases of the AO and the NAO you can look at this presentation from the state climate office of North Carolina.
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