Rounds of severe weather to escalate in central, eastern US during mid-May
Severe weather will continue in the Southeast and northern Rockies in the short term, then expand and shift to a large part of the Central and Eastern states as the week progresses.
AccuWeather lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok was live on the AccuWeather Network on May 12 to discuss AccuWeather’s tornado forecast for 2025.
As pockets of severe weather continue in parts of the eastern and central United States during the first part of this week, a broader and bigger risk of severe weather that includes tornadoes may evolve toward the middle of May and beyond, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
Storms will pulse and become severe at the local level, spreading from parts of the Southeast to the mid-Atlantic region this week. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated in this zone on a daily basis for most of the week. However, there can still be a few scattered storms with powerful wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.
The main problems farther to the north in the East will be associated with flooding downpours during the middle days of the week.
Farther west, the seeds of a more substantial severe weather problem will begin over the northern Plains. This occurs as cooler air and a jet stream dip push into a sea of unusually hot air so early in the season.
Somewhat of a lull in thunderstorm activity may occur over the North Central states on Monday and Tuesday, but that will change during the middle days of the week.
As cooler air from the Northwest lunges across the northern Plains, new thunderstorms will erupt during Wednesday afternoon and night from the Dakotas to Nebraska and as far east as southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa.
The main threats will continue to be from large hail and powerful wind gusts with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 90 mph. Some of the hailstones may reach the size of baseballs or a bit larger.
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On Thursday, the threat will expand through much of the Midwest and intensify. AccuWeather meteorologists are already expecting numerous thunderstorms on Thursday from northern Illinois and Indiana to western Michigan and much of Wisconsin.
Some of the major cities at risk for severe weather, ranging from significant hail and high winds to flash flooding and tornadoes, include Chicago, Green Bay, Wisconsin, Indianapolis, Indiana, and Des Moines, Iowa.
The severe weather threat will continue to shift southeastward, broaden and perhaps intensify further on Friday and Saturday.
The severe weather potential that includes tornadoes will be centered on the Tennessee Valley and the lower portion of the Mississippi Valley, but includes portions of the Ohio Valley and part of the East Coast--perhaps close to 20 states may be at risk at some point.
Later next weekend to the start of the following week, the threat may jump westward to include much of the central and southern Plains to portions of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley.
The details on the long-range severe weather will unfold in the coming days. However, the pattern has the potential to evolve into one or more significant severe weather outbreaks.
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