The new monthly update for the ECMWF model seasonal forecast has been released to our in-house system.
The computer model has backed off on the heat and dryness for the Prairies during the summer. With the recent cool, wet weather which has increased soil moisture I will have to closely monitor this and may have to adjust my own forecast. Stay tuned.
The ECMWF is also more robust with the coming El Nino and is predicting at least moderate strength by late summer/early fall. Earlier forecasts were anticipating a weak El Nino, which still may be the case.
Questions or comments? Feel free to contact me right here.
A warm first half of summer for a majority of Canada.
Fast, west-to-east jet stream pattern across southern Canada into next week.
Clues to the long range over the next several weeks across North America.
Potential for significant rainfall over southwestern Alberta late this week into the early weekend.
A strong, upper-level storm system will bring significant rain, severe thunderstorms and much cooler air to parts of western and central Canada into early next week.
Latest ideas on the weekly long range through the end of this month.