Long Range Seasonal Outlook through Winter just Released

The ECMWF long range seasonal forecast model outlook has just been released. This product is updated once a month around the 8th and goes out through the 2013/2014 season.

You can also follow my weather pattern comments on my twitter @BrettAWX

I will be issuing the AccuWeather Canada forecast for Fall 2013 next week.

Here are some of the key points from the ECMWF model forecast....

1. Unseasonably warm for the Fall from extreme NW Canada to Atlantic Canada. 2. Warmer than normal for the SW U.S. in the Fall. 3. Near-normal Fall temperatures from the southern Prairies to extreme southern Ontario. 4. Wetter pattern for western BC this Fall, but drier than normal for Atlantic Canada.

5. Warmer-than-normal winter for Alaska and much of NE Canada, including Newfoundland. 6. Near-normal temperatures from BC to Ontario and southern Quebec.

The model indicates a higher probability of a negative Arctic Oscillation (see example below) dominating for the upcoming Winter, which if correct would normally mean more widespread cold for southern Canada and the U.S.. However, the model shows very little in the way of cold for the winter, so other factors may be at play such as low snow cover, low sea ice, cloud cover etc..

The model also continues to forecast near-neutral ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) conditions through Fall and into early Winter, but has trended a little more toward a possible weak El Nino by late Winter.

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