Long-Range Forecast Model Update Trends Warmer

Here is my interpretation of the latest ECMWF long-range forecast model output for North America that goes out through most of the rest of this month.

This model has been all over the place from run to run which tells me that the model is still having a difficult time resolving the overall pattern over the next few weeks. You like to see at least some consistency which usually leads to reduced error. For those who want the cold and snow, I would not panic over this latest model solution, though I do think the middle of the month will be milder than normal for the eastern half of Canada. However, it would not surprise me in the least if we see it (model) flip again in the next week or two.

We still see indications of some significant stratospheric warming in the high latitudes over the next week, and if that does happen and translates lower in the atmosphere, it can signal a turn to much more widespread cold across southern Canada and the U.S. about 15-20 days after the initial warming. Just another piece of this complex puzzle that we have to closely monitor.