Long-Range Forecast Model Update into Early August

This is my interpretation of the ECMWF long-range forecast model that now extends into the first week of August.

A persistent ridge over northeastern Canada combined with above-normal ocean temperatures will likely keep temperatures above normal through most of July across Quebec and Atlantic Canada then the model appears to break down that ridge by August.

The model is also indicating a heavier monsoon than usual (daily p.m. thunderstorms) across the interior west of the U.S. during the period. Unfortunately, this pattern would also mean plenty of dry lightning storms as well which could touch off many more wildfires.

Also note the persistent area of below-normal rainfall over the tropical grounds of the northern Caribbean and western Atlantic (Bahamas to near Florida) which could mean a reduced threat of tropical cyclones in this region compared to normal during the period.