Forecast Model Update into the Winter

The ECMWF model seasonal outlook was just updated today. Keep in mind, this is not the AccuWeather.com forecast. I just want to show you what some of the latest forecast modeling is showing for the next several months.

Below is my interpretation of what this particular model is predicting through the winter months. The ECMWF (European) model typically has the lowest error on average compared to other global models.

The October run of the ECMWF was not as widespread with the above-normal temperatures for southern Canada and the U.S. compared to the September run. This makes more sense IMO.

This model is projecting more of a negative Arctic Oscillation for the upcoming winter, which would argue for pockets of colder air getting dislodged farther south. However, the model is still not predicting much in the way of serious cold, which is likely a product of the upcoming El Nino. I have also noticed that the ECMWF seems to have had more of a warm bias in recent years.

Speaking of El Nino, the ECMWF is still predicting a weak El Nino from later this Fall through the winter. The North American models are leaning more toward a moderate El Nino for the winter that peaks later in February or March. At this point, I still like the idea of a weak El Nino.

Both this model and some of the North American models are more consistent in showing a stormier winter from the Southeast U.S. and up the eastern seaboard and into the Maritimes.

Questions or comments? Feel free to post one below or contact me via my twitter @BrettAWX or my email.

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I will be releasing the AccuWeather.com Canada Winter forecast later this month, which will certainly take into account this latest model data, but also current global observations and analogs.

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