What a difference a year makes!
Check out the two images below from the Canadian Ice Service. The first one is from February 2011 and shows the sea ice concentration over the Great Lakes. Note that most of Lake Erie was covered with at least 90 percent ice.
Lake Ontario is a deeper lake and usually has ice only along the edges during the winter.
The second image is the most recent from this winter. Barely any ice, even on shallow Lake Erie!
I just found out that the 37 degree F. lake water temperature at Buffalo, N.Y., today is a record high for this date, beating the old record of 36 degrees set in 1933. Records go back to 1927.
If we can get some sustained cold with wind, then the lake-effect snow season off Huron and Erie will certainly be prolonged through the end of the winter as significant ice formation is unlikely at this point.
Southeast Newfoundland snow Friday evening through Saturday morning
A rapidly intensifying storm will bring some snow and a period of strong winds to basically the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland starting Friday evening and into Saturday morning.
I am favoring the American GFS/NAM models with more moisture at this point, especially since the ECMWF model did not do a good job on the previous storm and was to far south and east.
Right now, I would lean towards 15 cm in St. John's with lower amounts as you head west. The wind and cold temps will lead to drifting issues as well.
BTW, this will be an all snow event.
Strong thunderstorms for parts of Ontario Tuesday afternoon and a look at the overall weather pattern across Canada and the U.S. for this week.
My latest interpretation of the ECMWF forecast model, along with some input from other models and current data.
Some thoughts on the weather pattern into mid-July
Wildfire smoke causing significant problems across Saskatchewan.
Spring-like storm to soak parts of eastern and Atlantic Canada this weekend as the West cooks.
Heat wave for western Canada by the weekend as the East cools down a bit.