Arctic Air Aims West and Long Range Update

Strengthening ridge of high pressure aloft over Alaska will help send Arctic air into western Canada later Sunday into early Tuesday before it quickly shifts away.

This cold air should press all the way into southwestern BC as a strong surface high pressure system to the north delivers the cold, dry northeast winds.

There will be some light snow across the Rockies and southwestern Alberta with this cold air mass, but nothing significant due to a lack of upper-level support.

However, with a lack of upstream blocking, this air mass, like a few others this coming month will be in and out fairly quickly across southern Canada and the lower 48.

A second shot of Arctic air (again, not a sustained invasion) will likely impact western Canada toward next weekend.

------ Long range forecast model interpretation

After looking at the forecast modeling, teleconnections and other data I just do not see any reason for sustained (meaning Arctic air locks in for a week or more) cold across southern Canada during the second and third weeks of January. I will keep looking, but I just have not found it at this point. That does not mean there will not be any snowstorms, as the southern branch of the jet stream will be active and at times far enough north to possibly send storms into just enough cold air for snow across parts of southern Canada. I guess we all deserve a break in terms of heating costs, especially compared to last winter.

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I hope everyone had a nice holiday period. Unfortunately, our holiday got off to an awful start as our 14-year old cat Mack suddenly passed away on Christmas Eve. I could usually count on him sitting up on the computer desk on many evenings just staring (probably waiting for me to feed him) at me while I drew up these long range maps. We miss him terribly.

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