Friday 9 a.m.
Warm and humid conditions will prevail in the Middle Atlantic states through the weekend. From central New York state through much of New England, there is some uncertainty because of a very slow-moving front separating the summery air to the south from slightly cooler air to the north. As warm and humid air glides up and over the cooler air, clouds and spotty showers and thunderstorms can occur. This radar picture from 8 a.m. shows we are not just talking about light sprinkles!
In the video, we look at how the weather should evolve during the weekend and early next week.
In forecasting the future movement of tropical storms and hurricanes, a variety of computer models are run. The map below shows the tracks predicted by this plethora of models. While each track would produce a unique outcome (in terms of details), most are pointing to the possibility of a batch of heavy rain coming right up through the Middle and North Atlantic states early next week. AccuWeather.com will have stories and videos about the storm all weekend. Even if the tropical system moves away, a cold front from the west will have its own supply of showers and thunderstorms.
This map shows where Hurricane Joaquin was just before 8 a.m. ET. You can also see the stripe of clouds centered just of the Middle and North Atlantic coasts.
There are competing forces acting on it, and each move it makes will place it under different influences. This has made it very difficult for computer models and meteorologists to judge where it will actually go. This is reflected in the track model collection on this map:
In assessing the final impact of the storm system coming into the East, there are three main components. First is the cold front coming across the Appalachians tonight in a very rich moisture field with ...
On this map, the cold front that will eventually move through the Northeast is in the far northwest corner of the picture. There are areas of showers moving northeastward well ahead of the front, but the steadiest rain is not likely until the cool air moves in and the front stalls.
The Midwest and Northeast are in the latitude zone where winds are primarily from the west. The direct opposite is the case today, as seen on this pressure analysis. The easterly flow brings in moisture from the Atlantic.
The infrared satellite picture below shows the cloudiness as of midmorning on Thursday. If it stays the way it is now, there is no problem in the Northeast. However, on another screen I have been watching the whole area expanding north and west, as indicated on the map.