Monday 10:40 a.m.
Just before 11 a.m., The National Hurricane Center officially called a storm near Jamaica T.D. 18, the 18th tropical depression of this year's tropical storm/hurricane season. It is likely to strengthen, so naming it Sandy would be the next step.
There is a significant historical precedent for a storm to form around where this is located... and then turn into a real hurricane. In 1878, a storm formed near Jamaica (near where the new storm is) then became a Category 2 hurricane and moved right up the East coast. The center passed east of Florida, then came ashore in eastern North Carolina and stayed inland until it turned almost straight east over the southern parts of Vermont and New Hampshire. There was extensive damage from the Carolinas to New England, and more than 71 people were killed. This storm came to be known as the Gale of '78.
A history of the storm was prepared by David M. Roth and High D. Cobb III of the National Weather Service in 2000. They point out that aside from Hurricane Hazel in 1954, all hurricanes with somewhat similar tracks occurred in the 19th century. Here is the storm track, as shown in the article referenced:
Now, since the newest storm has not yet had much impact, it could be asked why the new development could be important. In this video, there is one map from last evening's ECMWF (European) Model. A storm like the one depicted would be disastrous in the Middle Atlantic states, threatening death and serious injury and causing billions of dollars in damage.
Here is one of the maps that looks so threatening:
If this were to actually happen and hurricane-force winds hit places like Philadelphia and New York City, there would be a major storm surge, massive power outages, flooding rain.... and then least a foot or two of heavy wet snow near and southwest of Somerset, Pa., in the Laurel Highlands and in Garrett County, Md.
But how likely is this event? At this point, it would be irresponsible to say it is likely at all. The model showing it has changed the track with successive runs, and other models, such as the GFS, have the storm tracking well east of the area targeted on the map. Here is the GFS model forecast for the same area at the exact same time. The difference is awesome.
In the meantime, the weather seems almost anything but threatening in the Middle Atlantic states. Temperatures will be above average all week, and no rain is forecast in the I-95 corridor from Philadelphia south past Washington, D.C., all week.
This map is the GFS forecast for when weekend rain makes its most northward advance early Sunday. The model then shows drying from north to south during the day Sunday. The ensemble mean has the northern edge in the same area. Looking ahead, it appears that warmer air is coming when May starts.
This map shows the GFS model forecast for Saturday evening. In the last day or two, the models have trended northward with the precipitation. If it trends even farther north, the issue of possible snow would need to be addressed. Check back later for updates, please.
The GFS (U.S. Model) predicts a major storm for the Middle Atlantic in the middle or late part of next week. This map is the GFS forecast for next Thursday (April 30) at 8 a.m. ET. Just to put you in a better mood, the second map (for May 4) shows what would be a sunny and pleasantly warm spring day.
This map shows the pressure pattern earlier this morning. You can see the extensiveness of the area of west to east winds. As a storm north of the Upper Great Lakes moves eastward, the flow will become more northwesterly.
This year, the "slight" category has been divided in two: slight and enhanced. When seen together on an SPC map, the progression makes sense. When the term "enhanced" is used alone, it can be a challenge, at least until we get used to it.
This map shows the pressure analysis and locations of fronts and low pressure areas at 9 a.m. EDT today. Places from Philadelphia northeastward will only warm up if and when the warm front in Delaware passes any given spot. Chill air follows the front in Indiana.