Tuesday 11 a.m.
A storm developing in the Southeast will move northeast and strengthen tonight and tomorrow, creating gale -riven rain for beleaguered coastal locations in the Middle and North Atlantic states. This enhanced infrared satellite picture from just before 8:30 a.m. shows the concentration of clouds over the Southeast.
The strongest winds are likely to affect the New Jersey coast tomorrow afternoon and night, and the New England coastal area will get their strongest gales tomorrow night and early Thursday. Though nowhere near as strong or extensive as Sandy was ... and taking a track northeastward instead of straight west... this will be a strong northeaster. This video shows what to expect as the situation unfolds.
On the northwest edge of the precipitation, wet snow is likely. Last night's GFS model suggested that Philadelphia and the northwest suburbs of New York could get their first snow accumulation of the season. Baltimore and parts of the Washington, D.C., area could also get snow with that scenario. This morning's NMM-WRF run was a little warmer, suggesting just rain in the I-95 corridor. However, the morning run of the GFS is colder and snowier looking all the way through Philly. Since there will be wide variations over short distances, I urge you to check our frequently updated stories, forecasts and videos rather than using this report as the final answer.
Regardless of how things turn out with the storm, much milder air is likely to spread toward the Northeast as we go through the coming weekend.
The front will move into a region with high humidity as it approaches the I95 corridor tomorrow. This is the basis for SPC's forecast of thunderstorms approaching severe limits tomorrow.
Tropical Storm Colin is caught in the southern stream while the northern stream is helping to send unseasonably cool air out of central Canada.
Then, as the cold front arrives, there may be violent thunderstorms. This map shows the early morning SPC assessment of the severe weather risk on Sunday:
Farther east on Sunday, rain is likely to be more extensive, and there is a severe thunderstorm threat from the Middle Atlantic region on south.
With the second front, shower activity may be spotty at first as the system comes through Chicago on Saturday but could be wetter and more stormy than the first front by time it reaches the I-95 corridor Sunday.
A pocket of dry air covers most of the area from the Great Lakes to the back edge of the East Coast clouds. This suggests sunshine will be the rule across the Northeast until the next frontal system approaches later in the week.