Wednesday 8 a.m.
Here is today's video forecast:
Thunderstorms from yesterday into this morning moved in accordance with two distinct steering currents aloft. New groups of flooding thunderstorms have developed in Kansas each of the last few mornings, with the storms then heading east and then southeast. Fort Leonard Wood, Mo., was drenched by more than 5.5 inches of rain yesterday.
Miss Crustacean Beauty Pageant- Ocean City, N.J., Aug 7, 2013
This is big: the annual Miss Crustacean Beauty Pageant is being held on the beach in Ocean City, N.J., today to determine which hermit crab is the fastest on the beach. What does that have to do with our weather? For the last few days, most people in the Northeast were happy as a clam because of sunshine. But, if you don't have a full head of hair, you had to guard against sunburn on the scallop. For the next few days, the forecast turns into something of a shell game because there are several different possibilities. A cold front that will approach from the northwest at a snail's pace could be stalling. One glance at upper air steering flow adds to the idea that something is fishy. The result is vacationers may become crabby because of an occasional shower or thunderstorm today through Friday and Saturday.
But, there's a catch. We shrimply cannot time the individual showers beyond the first hours of the forecast because the shower zones change over time. So, sometimes it rains, but at other times we are left high and dry like a fish out of water. So, while there can be showers at Oyster Bay, N.Y., and Dolphin County, Pa., I have to clam up about the specific timing. This is just one of the problems we have when cold fronts don't flex their mussels. Because of the uncertainty, let me throw you this line. Stay with AccuWeather.com whenever you are ready to cast off. Failing to do that is eel advised.
If correct, cooler, drier and more comfortable weather will take over in the Northeast as we go into the holiday weekend, then warmth and humidity would increase as we go through next week. This map matches that scenario.
that short wave is what the models latch onto in bringing a cold front through the Northeast Wednesday night and Thursday. This would bring noticeable cooling to the Northeast late in the week.
Labor Day is a week from Monday. The computer model used here, the GFS ensemble mean, suggests the weather will favor outdoor late summer activities across the Great Lakes and Northeast:
In response to heating at ground level and a weak cold front approaching from the west, showers and locally strong thunderstorms should develop across northern Ohio this afternoon.
... much greater interest is being generated on threats and rumors about tropical storms. It is worthwhile to read Dan Kottlowski's authoritative reports on this. Here is a copy of his map from this morning:
The tropical Atlantic shows signs of life in the storm development department. Dan Kottlowski's expert discussion suggests the third storm (which could be Hermine) of current concern is one that could head to the Bahamas, Florida, the Gulf or ???