Wintry mayhem in March: Cold air invasions to chill Northeast, Midwest next 2 weeks
Despite a warm surge this week, winter will swipe back at the Midwest and Northeast in the form of chilly blasts of air and even more flurries and snow squalls during the second half of March.
Many of us have gotten used to springlike temperatures in recent days, but winter will make at least one more stand in the Northeast before the end of March.
March is often recognized as a month of extremes and a battle between two seasons: winter and spring. The upcoming weeks will continue to demonstrate just that, with at least two outbreaks of cold air to drop southeastward from Canada and roll across the Midwest and into the Northeast, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
This week has already been one of extremes, as temperatures surged in the East, a snowstorm buried parts of Colorado, severe thunderstorms roared over the Mississippi and Ohio valleys and winds howled in California.
But the tale for the Midwest and Northeast through nearly the end of the month will be exchanges of warm and cold air.
Warm air prevailed during the first half of the month, with temperatures of 5 to 15 degrees above the historical average. However, the second half of March may end up with temperatures trending back down toward the historical average.
"The extended stretch of above-average warmth will soon come to an end across much of the Midwest and Northeast due of a storm diving out of Canada," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
The arrival of the colder air will come just before the official start of astronomical spring, which begins on Tuesday, March 19, at 11:06 p.m. EDT.
Following high temperatures in Chicago approaching 60 on Saturday, or 10-15 degrees above the historical average, temperatures will nosedive on Sunday and Monday. Highs on Sunday and Monday will range from the upper 30s to near 40, or 8-12 degrees below the historical average.
It will take until early next week for the colder air to reach much of the Northeast. In Pittsburgh, high temperatures will trend downward from 74 on Thursday to near 60 on Friday and Saturday. As the colder air moves in on Sunday, temperatures are likely to be no higher than 50 and may top out in the upper 30s on Monday and Tuesday. The average high in Steel City is in the upper 40s.
On the Atlantic coast, high temperatures by Tuesday will only be in the mid-40s in New York City, which is about 5 degrees below average for the date. That's quite a swing from the first two weeks of March when temperatures were 8-9 degrees above the historical average.
Throw in some wind and other atmospheric conditions, and AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures in all locations will dip to 10 degrees lower or more than the actual temperature, especially at the beginning and end of the day and throughout the night.
As the leading edge of the colder air arrives, rain and snow showers will break out near the Great Lakes on Saturday and St. Patrick's Day, and will expand toward more of the Midwest and Northeast on Sunday, Buckingham said.
The air will get chilly near the ground, but it will get much colder at the level of the atmosphere where jets fly. This instability will create flurries, snow showers and heavier snow squalls on Monday and Tuesday.
Given the setup, the heavier squalls may be most active during the midday and afternoon hours. Where squalls drift across highways, a dangerous sudden drop in visibility can occur with even a brief slushy coating of snow.
"The chilly regime is expected to have some staying power, lasting through at least the middle of next week," Buckingham said, adding, "While there could be a brief warmup late next week, it may not last long as another storm can bring in a fresh round of chilly air during the last week of March."
The position of the core of the cold may set up over the north-central United States as opposed to the Northeast late in the month.
It does not appear that the storms will hook up with the cold air just right to bring a big snowstorm to the Interstate 95 corridor of the Northeast, AccuWeather Senior Long-Range Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said. However, the chance of a bit of snow or a wintry mix may still be possible in these areas later in the month.
Following little to no precipitation in the East this weekend to next, the end of the month will likely trend wetter.
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