Winter weather to linger into first full day of spring in northeastern US
Not only will new waves of colder air trigger more flurries and snow squalls in parts of the Midwest and Northeast, but temperatures may dip enough to bring a damaging freeze to parts of the southern United States.
While the winter of 2023-2024 has been practically a no-show in much of the Midwest and Northeast, it will fight on until the last as a snap of cold air as snow showers will sweep across the regions through Wednesday, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
The official start of spring is just a day away. The spring (vernal) equinox for 2024 will occur at 11:06 p.m. on Tuesday, March 19. At this time, the sun's rays at noon local time in a different part of the globe pass directly over the Equator while venturing farther north until the summer solstice.
From the first official day of winter, Dec. 21, through Saturday, March 16, temperatures have been well above the historical average throughout the Midwest and Northeast. In some major cities, these departures have been 4.2 degrees in Boston, 5.3 degrees in New York City, 7.5 degrees in Chicago and 10.9 degrees in Minneapolis. Any temperature departure of 2 degrees or more above average for a season is considered major.
Along with the unusual warmth, snowfall has been lacking. The percentage of seasonal snowfall to the historical average in the same cities ranged from a mere 22% in Boston to 27% in New York City, 32% in Minneapolis and 59% in Chicago. Of these four cities, only Chicago had double-digit snowfall with 21.2 inches, compared to the historical average of 36 inches for the season to date.
But as spring bulbs have been blooming and buds have been breaking on some trees and shrubs well ahead of average, the meager winter of 2023-24 still has some fight left.
The jet stream will lunge southward into the middle of the week, allowing waves of cold air to flow from central Canada to across the Midwest and into the Northeast states, AccuWeather Meteorologist Ryan Adamson said.
Even though the air at ground level will be chilly enough, especially when the wind is active, it will be much colder several thousand feet up. This will create an unstable atmosphere to the point where flurries and snow showers erupt, with the potential for some to pulse into locally heavy snow squalls.
"The situation is a bit more complex than last weekend as there will be some disturbances riding along with the jet stream dip and these will cause the extent of the flurries and snow showers to fluctuate," Adamson said.
Snow may be in the air much of the time just downwind of the Great Lakes, but that frequency will be more limited in the central and northern Appalachians and may be extremely limited in areas along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts.
Adamson said that most likely, the snow squalls will not be as numerous nor as intense as last weekend, but they can bring a sudden drop in visibility, which can be hazardous for motorists on the highways. A brief coating of snow is possible, mainly on non-paved surfaces near the Great Lakes and over the mountains, with a few exceptions.
AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking a storm from Canada that will drop southeastward along with the colder air.
The effect of that clipper storm will be to enhance the snow showers a bit and may even produce some bands of steadier snow around the Great Lakes on Tuesday and then more of the Northeast on Wednesday, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck said.
Where the bands of snow develop, there is the potential for up to a few inches of snow. However, that will likely be an exception rather than the general theme. The best chance of snow showers reaching the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts will be Wednesday or Wednesday evening.
After a mild start to the weekend, temperatures will trend to a bit chillier than the historical average through Wednesday of this week. At the peak of the chill, daytime highs will be held to the upper 30s around Chicago for at least a couple of days during the stretch. New York City will have multiple days with highs in the mid- to upper 40s, compared to a historical average near 50 degrees this week.
AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures will range from 5 to 15 degrees lower than the actual temperature, depending largely on the time of the day versus the sun angle and the strength of the wind.
Along with the setback of the cold air on outdoor plans will be the consequences of freezing temperatures that may cause damage to young leaves, buds and blossoms. This risk extends as far south as the Southern states' Interstate 20 and I-85 corridors by Tuesday morning.
During the coldest nights of the outbreak of Canadian air, temperatures will dip into the single digits over the Upper Midwest and the teens over the northern tier of the Northeast.
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