November reality check coming to eastern US in the wake of Nicole
An unseasonably warm start to the month made it feel like spring at times in the East, but the looming pattern change will erase that warmth and Old Man Winter will have some tricks up his sleeve as well.
A significant change in the weather pattern is set to unfold once Nicole races away for much of the eastern United States. Temperatures will take a sharp plunge as warm, and in some cases tropical, air will be replaced by frosts, freezes and even snowflakes in parts of the Northeast and interior Southeast in the weeks ahead, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
"The interaction of a tropical system, such as Nicole, with a non-tropical system, such as the northern Plains blizzard, often ushers in a major weather pattern change to much of the Eastern states," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys.
The engine powering the unfolding pattern change is a major shift in the jet stream. The northward bulge in the jet stream from recent weeks will be swapped with a more west-to-east setup and at times a southward dip. This tends to shut off the warm flow of air from the south and allows more frequent intrusions of cold air from Canada.
Colder air has already been gaining a foothold in the West and Plains and will spread over the East in several waves into next week.
"Up to this point, much of the East has experienced brief bursts of chilly air that have lasted two to maybe four days, but the pattern unfolding starting this weekend will be the longest stretches of below-normal temperatures so far this season," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said. "Essentially, once the cold air moves in, it sticks around this time."
Highs typically range from the lower 40s in Caribou, Maine, to the upper 70s in Orlando around the second weekend of November. Nighttime lows this time of year tend to span the upper 20s in northern New England to the upper 50s in central Florida.
"Temperatures during the first week or so of November have averaged 13 degrees above normal in New York City and more than 11 degrees above normal in Atlanta," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said. "But that warm surplus is going to be hacked away and could be totally erased over the next 10 days or more."
The transition will begin this weekend and may seem abrupt to some individuals. Those in the Southeast wearing warm-weather attire such as shorts and short-sleeve shirts prior to Nicole's arrival will want to start wearing a jacket or hooded sweatshirt when venturing outside, forecasters say.
North of the Florida Peninsula, where some warm air will hang on, highs in the 60s to 70s F on Saturday will be followed by a 15- to 25-degree temperature drop, on average, when it comes to high temperatures on Sunday.
In the Southeast, colder air began to spill in across the interior on Saturday.
After highs in the 70s in Atlanta and Charlotte on Friday, the mercury trended down 5-10 degrees on Saturday and drop another 10-15 degrees on Sunday.
The frosts or freezes will be possible farther to the east along the Southern states' I-85 corridor starting Sunday night with lows ranging from the upper 20s to the lower 30s during that time.
"Highs on Sunday in the zone from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia and New York City will be within a couple degrees of 50," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyssa Smithmyer said. "Factoring in AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures, it will feel more like 40 at times during the day."
Much of the I-95 zone of the Northeast has not yet had a frost or freeze, but that could happen in some locations as soon as early next week. The average date of the first freezing temperature in Uptown Manhattan is Nov. 10. Temperatures could reach or hover just above that level on Monday morning in New York's Central Park.
"Even though some of the cold air will be tempered along the immediate Atlantic and Gulf coasts in the pattern unfolding, and much of the Florida Peninsula may avoid it entirely, energy demands for heat will jump by next week," Lundberg said. "People in the Eastern states have gotten a little break from heat expenditures over the past two to three weeks, but that is coming to an end."
What about the chances of snow?
Snowflakes will fly in parts of the Midwest and central Appalachian regions starting this weekend.
A disturbance associated with a secondary push of cold air, one that brought over 6 inches of snow to Scott Air Force Base and Aviston, Illinois Friday, will begin to move eastward. This will bring wet snowflakes that can mix in with the rain in parts of Kentucky, southern Indiana and Ohio on Saturday. The disturbance will then track over parts of West Virginia, western Maryland, western Pennsylvania and western and central New York state Saturday night.
As the colder air takes hold, this patch of snow will transition into more typical lake-effect flurries and snow showers from Sunday to Monday.
"The most likely time for snow showers that could accumulate this weekend is late Saturday night and Sunday morning from northeastern Ohio to northwestern Pennsylvania and western New York," AccuWeather Senior Storm Warning Meteorologist Brian Wimer said. "This accumulation potential then shifts to New York's Tug Hill Plateau and Adirondacks on Sunday night."
Some of the grassy areas, especially the higher elevations to the east of lakes Erie and Ontario, can pick up 1-3 inches, but a small accumulation on some roads cannot be ruled out.
Old Man Winter will have more tricks up his sleeve in this upcoming pattern. If cold air and moisture come together in the right way, there could be multiple accumulating snow events that stretch from the southern Plains to parts of the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast over the next couple of weeks.
AccuWeather meteorologists have already begun to map out a potential cross-country snowfall from Texas to Maine next week.
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