Arctic retreat: Dramatic warmup across US, temps could surge nearly 90 degrees
Sunshine, a less-stormy weather pattern and an ease back of Arctic air will contribute to milder to warmer conditions for much of the central and eastern United States in the days ahead.
AccuWeather’s Ali Reid reports from Virginia Beach, Virginia, in the morning of Feb. 20, where the shores have been blanketed by snow with bitter cold lingering. Roads were slick with snow and ice.
Old Man Winter will begin to ease his icy grip on much of the central and eastern United States in the coming days and weeks, but there will still be some periodic outbursts from the Arctic, AccuWeather long-range meteorologists say. Frigid air forecast to build in eastern Canada will likely spill into part of the Northeast in March.
Warmer days are on the way for much of the Central and Southern states with milder conditions for the Northeast following extended spells of teeth-chattering chills in February.
In some cases, merely turning off the harsh winds and bringing the sun out can work wonders in erasing frigid conditions in late February and early March, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. "And we have just that sort of thing in store for many areas this weekend to next week."
Sunshine alone can provide a tremendous lift for those experiencing the winter blues.
In Chicago, high temperatures will trend upward from the mid-20s F on Thursday to the upper 30s by Sunday and then the mid-40s early next week. A high in the upper 30s is the historical average for late February. In New York City, after temperatures bottom out in the low 20s on Saturday morning, temperatures will rebound to near 50 on Tuesday afternoon. A high in the mid-40s is typical for New York City in late February.
An even more dramatic example is in Oklahoma City, where temperatures dipped to near zero on Wednesday morning but will experience temperatures surging to near 70 by the middle of next week.
But, some of the biggest swings in temperature will occur over portions of the High Plains from the depths of the cold air this week to the peak of the warmth next week. Valentine, Nebraska, will flip from 33 below zero on Thursday morning to near 60 on Monday afternoon, or a swing of 93 degrees. Temperature swings of 60-75 degrees will be common across Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.
Much of February brought a tremendous onslaught of cold air, with winter storms varying in size and intensity. However, a new weather pattern is now shaping up that will allow Arctic air to retreat and storms to be less frequent, Anderson explained.
There will still be some storms with areas of snow moving through in the shifting pattern through much of March but not in such a rapid-fire fashion as that of the first two-thirds of February.
What has the polar vortex been up to this winter?
AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said other media outlets have been stating the polar vortex played a major role in the rounds of very cold air that have visited the central and eastern U.S. this winter.
"From a hardcore scientific standpoint, the storm [polar vortex] high in the atmosphere located near the North Pole has essentially remained locked up this winter and has not broken loose," Pastelok said.
"The polar vortex is located at a high level in the atmosphere, known as the stratosphere," Pastelok explained. "We really have not had a major shift or weakening of that storm this winter but rather some minor fluctuations or stretching of the storm that have slightly assisted with pushing cold air southward."
When the polar vortex totally breaks down or becomes displaced, it can set into motion a fierce outbreak of bitterly cold air in the lower part of the atmosphere that can invade the mid-latitudes for extended periods of time.
There are other, more common means to bring Arctic air southward without much help from the polar vortex. This can and has been delivered on countless occasions by large areas of high pressure that move southward throughout the year, every year.
High-pressure areas are essentially massive domes of air that can contain Arctic air, mild ocean air or hot tropical air. Meteorologists often look at where the high-pressure areas originate from to help determine how cold or warm the air can potentially be for a region when making a forecast.
"There was some stretching of the polar vortex back in January when much of the central and eastern U.S. experienced a major outbreak of frigid conditions," Pastelok said. "But more accurately, it was the polar jet stream that became distorted and helped to direct frigid high pressure areas into the U.S."
There are signs that another stretching of the polar vortex or shift in the polar jet stream will take place at the end of February and into the first half of March.
Indications are that for North America, this will be focused on eastern Canada, with some cold impacts for the northeastern U.S.
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