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AccuWeather 2020 white Christmas watch: Suit up, Santa Claus

By Mark Puleo, AccuWeather staff writer

Published Dec 18, 2020 4:14 PM EST | Updated Dec 24, 2020 11:30 AM EST

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With winter storms bringing snow to parts of the country this week, some areas have a higher probability than normal for a white Christmas.

Many Americans may feel like they deserve to wake up to a white Christmas after soldiering through what has been one of the most unexpected of years yet. However, the harsh meteorological reality is that some could wake up to a disappointing green lawn on Dec. 25.

So in which areas of the country will the snow lovers rejoice on Christmas morning? And which ones will be stuck hoping for next year?

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, who has been putting together long-range forecasts for decades, has Christmas projections that will be crucial for helping Santa Claus and his reindeer know what to wear for the big journey.

Read on to find out what you may wake up to see this year!

Rudolph and team may struggle to find snowy roofs in the Northeast

After a record-breaking snowstorm blanketed much of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions in the week-and-a-half preceding Christmas, a new storm eyeing the Northeast with a warm surge and heavy rain may threaten to erase that snowpack.

Temperatures on Christmas Eve are forecast to soar into the 50s along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast. Combined with heavy rain, there's little chance snow currently on the ground will survive all the way until Christmas morning.

Farther inland, where snow is deeper and temperatures won't be quite as warm, there's a better chance it could survive the impending rain.

"Along the corridor where the heaviest snow fell last week, from central Pennsylvania into interior New England, where many locales received well over a foot of snow, the snowpack may still be able to survive just long enough despite temperatures climbing toward the 40s along with a period of drenching rain," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda.

Even if much of the snow in all of the Northeast does end up melting with the rain Christmas Eve, there may still be hope on Christmas Day itself.

Santa, portrayed by Dan Kemmis, talks to a family wearing masks as he sits inside a protective bubble in Seattle's Greenwood neighborhood on Dec. 8, 2020. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

"The same storm that will bring the snow-eating rain could end as snow late Christmas Eve into Christmas Day in some parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, leaving behind a fresh white blanket," Sojda said.

"Unfortunately, chances of this are greater in the interior Northeast, and those near the coast are unlikely to see any change back to snow long enough to get a fresh coating for the holiday."

Last-minute storm may prepare Great Lakes, Midwest areas for white Christmas

Areas farther west of central Pennsylvania didn't receive the brunt of heavy snow that the Northeast was dealt, but Pastelok isn't ready to completely dampen white Christmas hopes for people living there just yet.

“The lake belts are going to be fine because there’s going to be more lake-effect snow before Christmas." While areas south of Erie toward Pittsburgh as well as eastern Ohio may lose their snow cover during the warm, rainy phase of the storm moving through on Christmas Eve, cold air wrapping around the back side of the storm will switch the rain over to snow heading into Christmas Eve night.

This switchover will happen in time to lay a fresh blanket of at least a few inches of snow in much of this area heading into Christmas morning.

Farther west, Chicago picked up a coating of snow on Wednesday night, with very little melting expected on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in the bitterly cold air mass. It may be just enough for a white Christmas in some areas.

Santa may not need a full suit for warmer Southwest

While cookies and carrots may be the traditional treats left for Santa and the reindeer, residents in the Southwest may want to leave a glass of water or maybe even some Gatorade to replenish big St. Nick from what might be a warmer-than-usual journey.

The area isn't historically prone to white Christmases, but this year snow is even less likely than normal, Pastelok said. However, some higher elevation areas could be in luck.

Father Frost looks through decorated 10-foot snow globe at Trolley Square in Salt Lake City on Dec. 10, 2020. In this socially distant holiday season, Santa Claus is still coming to towns (and shopping malls) across America but with a few 2020 rules in effect. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)

"The Southwest, they've seen a little bit of snow in parts of northern New Mexico, San Juan and Colorado," Pastelok said. "We felt that that area would miss out a lot. They’ve had a couple of systems there so it looks like the higher elevations should be whitened up, but it's my concern in the West that some of the lower spots will not have snow because of the fact that there will be some warmups from time to time there."

Dasher, Dancer, Prancer and a snowy Pacific Northwest

Farther north, however, Rudolph and Co. will likely have no shortage of snowy roofs on which to touch down.

"The higher spots are getting smacked in the Pacific Northwest," Pastelok said. "Northern California: they’re getting hit hard and will continue to get hit hard and they will have a white Christmas," Pastelok continued. "I think the pattern favors them with multiple systems all the way through the week, up until Christmas time."

Up until the Tuesday before Christmas, Pastelok said he expects the storm pattern to continue, although he said he wouldn't be surprised if it eases up after that. However, one final storm may sprinkle some fresh snow over the region before Santa and his crew departing from the North Pole. 🎅🏼 ❄️

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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