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Why a ‘dry window’ in the weather forecast could help the US Corn Belt

By John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer

Published May 9, 2019 2:03 PM EDT | Updated Jul 1, 2019 4:57 PM EDT

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Illinois flood 5-6-2019

A city worker stands on top of a flood wall built to keep water from the Mississippi River, from city buildings in Alton, Illinois on May 4, 2019. (UPI/Bill Greenblatt)

There’s a ray of hope upcoming for farmers in states vital for corn production in the United States, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.

Wet weather and flooding this year have hampered the U.S. corn planting season, including in four of the top six corn-producing states, leaving Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana, and South Dakota significantly behind schedule. Iowa and Nebraska are only slightly behind, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

A continued wet pattern through late May could lead to higher consumer prices since corn is so vital to Americans and the U.S. economy. The U.S. is the largest producer of corn in the world with almost 100 million acres of land reserved for corn production.

But a storm that forecasters were expecting to hit the Corn Belt this weekend has re-routed to the south, which will provide a "dry window" of up to eight days that could allow planting to occur in a number of states, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.

“There will be a longer stretch of dry weather -- over a week in a lot of places -- and that’s enough to allow people to start catching up,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls. “I don’t think they’ll catch up all the way … They’ll make a lot of progress in Illinois next week though, which is huge.”

Iowa and Illinois are the top two states for corn production, combining for nearly one-third of the corn produced. Last week’s Crop Progress report showed Iowa had 36% of its corn planted compared to its five-year average of 51%.

Illinois had just 10% of its corn planted compared to its average of 66% by this date. All 18 states in last Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report were below their 2014-18 average for corn planted. The next report is due Monday, though the improved weather forecast figures to impact the subsequent report, issued May 20.

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It’s not the end of the wet weather, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. “We think after next week, it possibly won’t be until late May when it’s drier,” Nicholls said.

Problems will still persist for some states. “Two weeks from now, Minnesota and South Dakota will be the farthest behind,” said Nicholls. “But Illinois and states east of Illinois that are behind are going to have some pretty favorable weather in this dry window.”

Minnesota had just 6% of its corn planted compared to a five-year average of 42% by this date, while South Dakota had 0% compared to 29%.

In early April, AccuWeather estimated the total damage and economic loss caused by record-breaking flooding in the Midwestern U.S. this spring would total $12.5 billion, an estimate that accounted for the overall recent difficulties, including crop shipments being delayed on the Mississippi River. The economic damage rivals that of some of the worst hurricanes to hit the U.S., with the $12.5 billion estimate comparable to Hurricane Matthew (2016) and Hurricane Irene (2011).

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