Vance to become 11th major eastern Pacific hurricane this season. Will it turn toward Mexico?
Vance is forecast to rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane, with a dangerous landfall in Mexico possible as one scenario. A separate storm in the tropical Pacific could bring rain to Hawaii in late October.
Typhoon Champi brought big waves to parts of coastal Taiwan on Oct. 22 and 23 as it moved through the region.
Hurricane Vance is forecast to rapidly strengthen into this weekend, becoming the 11th major hurricane of the 2026 central and eastern Pacific hurricane season.
Multiple scenarios exist where the worst of the hurricane will remain at sea or could make a direct hit on Mexico. AccuWeather meteorologists are also monitoring an area of interest in the central Pacific that could pass near Hawaii before the end of October.
After lumbering around during the first part of the week as a tropical rainstorm, the area of interest began to strengthen on Wednesday and became a tropical depression. Four hours later, the depression strengthened to a tropical storm and acquired the next name on the list for the 2026 season: Vance.
Vance became a hurricane early Friday morning, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph as of 4 a.m. CDT. As of 9 a.m. Friday, winds had increased slightly to 90 mph.
Vance is forecast to rapidly strengthen, with wind intensity increasing by 35 mph or more in 24 hours or less, into the weekend. The storm is expected to peak as a major Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with winds of 111 mph or greater.
"Vance may spend most of or all of its life as a hurricane while over the open waters of the eastern Pacific," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "However, in a much more impactful and potentially dangerous scenario, there is some risk of the storm making a northeast turn toward the west-central coast of Mexico, rather than parallel the shoreline at sea and we will be monitoring that situation closely."
As long as the hurricane's eyewall remains offshore, most impacts will take the form of building surf and overwash along the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco.
Depending on the overall size and intensity of the storm and assuming its track stays mostly at sea, Vance's impacts will extend outward up to a few hundred miles and reach a portion of the west-central Mexican coast, mainly next week.
Some gusty winds and downpours from outer bands may graze these same areas along the Mexico coast next week, with the idea of the storm center staying offshore.
Provided Vance remains at sea, wind gusts along the west-central Mexico coast will range from 40-60 mph from Tuesday to next Thursday with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph. Winds this strong can cause tree damage and localized power outages.
"Vance will bring 1-2 inches of rain to coastal portions of Guerrero through western Jalisco as it tracks to the west of the coast," DaSilva said. "Higher rainfall totals of 2-4 inches and the risk of flooding can occur from coastal Michoacán through eastern Jalisco, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 6 inches."
What happens if Vance turns toward the Mexican coast?
Should Vance take the quick right turn into the west-central Mexico coast, it could bring wind gusts over 100 mph, rainfall measured in feet rather than a few inches with life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as a significant storm surge.
Toward the middle of next week, as long as Vance does not race toward land, a loss of wind intensity is forecast as the storm encounters cooler, churned-up waters in the wakes of multiple hurricanes.
"Regardless of what happens to Vance's circulation in late October to early November, some of its moisture could be stripped away, carried to the northeast and into part of the south-central United States, where it could enhance downpours and thunderstorms," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said.
Of the combined eastern and central Pacific basins, Vance is the 23rd tropical storm and the 24th depression. The accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, from all of the storms combined, which factors in their intensity and duration, has already set a record—near 335.
More tropical trouble may be brewing near Hawaii
AccuWeather meteorologists are also monitoring an area of interest in the central Pacific that could pass near Hawaii before the end of the month.
"We are monitoring another area thousands of miles to the west of Vance and a few hundred miles to the west of Hawaii," DaSilva said.
This feature has a medium chance of organizing and strengthening to a tropical depression or storm in the central part of the Pacific basin from Oct. 25-28.
"Steering winds may then guide that storm's heavy rain and strong wind or less intense showers and thunderstorms as a tropical depression or rainstorm from west to east across the Hawaiian Islands by Oct. 29," DaSilva said.
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